Expert NASCAR Picks & Predictions This Week: Pennzoil 400 Best Bets

NASCAR action returns to the deserts of Nevada for 400 miles around the 1.5-mile intermediate track at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Pennzoil 400. For the purposes of finding the best NASCAR betting odds, I’ll be using BetMGM Sportsbook. After looking over all of the lines for this weekend, this is a look at some of the best possible NASCAR betting picks on the market. Check out all of our expert NASCAR picks and predictions this weekend for the Pennzoil 400.

Expert NASCAR Picks & Predictions | Pennzoil 400

Kyle Larson, +450 to win

A new season and a new vehicle, and after just two races Kyle Larson already has a notch in the win column for 2022. Truth be told, he was not the most dominant vehicle in the field at Auto Club Speedway, that notation belongs to Tyler Reddick, who was a late-blown tire away from winning his first career Cup Series event. Erik Jones, was a close second, finishing with the fastest car in terms of green flag speed rankings, but saw his own victory robbed by another late caution and subsequent slow pit stop. Larson, whether it be skill, luck, pit crew, or a combination of all three, did enough to hang around up front near the top-five most of last Sunday, finishing with just the sixth-fastest vehicle, but found himself in position to capitalize on the circumstances that presented themselves.

After that win, Larson returns to the scene of his first victory in 2021, Las Vegas where he led 130 laps. Intermediate track victories constituted five of his 10 victories last year including the very similar Charlotte Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway events. Based on Larson’s green flag speed ranks through three races (top-six in each event), it appears Larson and crew chief Cliff Daniels are picking up where they left off last year. Circumstances had to play out for Larson to win last week, with more data under the belt of the 5 team they’re going to need fewer opportunities and just better starting position to return to the dominant factor NASCAR fans remember from last season.

This outright number on Larson has been a major point of discussion all week among betting circles. Originally when DraftKings Sportsbook dropped its initial outright odds, Larson sat at 6/1 odds, and betters quickly moved that down to 5.5/1. That number has been bet down even further to +500 as of Friday morning. Even after three days of upward movement, it’s still a better number than what is offered currently at BetMGM. Thus, this is why it behooves betters to always do their due diligence in shopping numbers around.

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Nonetheless, at BetMGM, Larson originally opened at a very short 3.5/1 suggesting that BetMGM was not going to give betters a “large” number that would immediately get shaved down. However, after a few days, this number has gone in reverse now at its current 4.5/1.

Perhaps with Saturday’s practice session and qualifying effort, this number can gain a little more juice, but after watching Larson ascend to the lead late last week, people may not care if Larson posts a top-10 practice number or qualifies fifth.

Best NASCAR Pick This Week: Kyle Larson to Win (+450)

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William Byron (-130) over Tyler Reddick

One of the supposed features of the Generation Seven car was how it would level the playing field. After watching Tyler Reddick and Erik Jones run one-two for the majority of last Sunday, and a late-charging Daniel Suarez, and Austin Dillon it’s hard to argue against this reality. In lieu of this, sportsbooks have shored up odds on these “overachievers” just in case they spike again. Most notably, Erik Jones currently sits at 22/1 to win the Pennzoil 400, after being 200/1 last week to win the Auto Club 400.

Following Reddick’s effort last week, he may begin to trend in the realm of chic picks, especially at plus money versus William Byron in this head-to-head offered on BetMGM. For bettors simply perusing previous box scores, taking Reddick at +110 makes even more sense when they see his sixth-place finish last summer. However, that finish loses the context of a race flipped on its head by a Joey Gase caution that took the race out of the hands of the Hendrick camp and put it squarely in that of Denny Hamlin. Not to mention, taking a race in the late summer of Las Vegas and comparing it to the typical cool spring race may not be the best process.

Regardless, when gauging this NASCAR pick by the numbers last year at intermediate tracks, this debate really couldn’t be much closer. Byron did find victory lane (Homestead) but Reddick finished second in that race, and with a few more laps, might have even caught him. In terms of finishes, Byron had a few more top-10 finishes and three top-five results compared to Reddick’s lone top-five at the previously mentioned Homestead. Although everyone remembers Reddick running up front most of last Sunday, Byron finished his day with the third-fastest car, leading 16 laps in the process, and somehow cut a tire on the exact same lap that Reddick did.

Ultimately, this head-to-head should be close between two evenly matched drivers, but the NASCAR pick this week will be Byron, which is a bet on the driver who showed more consistency at intermediate tracks in 2021, especially at the closely related Charlotte venue where Byron ranked top-three in green-flag speed ranks in each segment.

Best NASCAR Pick This Week: William Byron over Tyler Reddick (-130)

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com