The final leg of the first round of the playoffs kicks off under the lights at Bristol this Saturday evening. Using BetMGM to find all of the best NASCAR betting odds and lines, let’s take a look at the best bets in this week’s outright markets, potential top-10s and props for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway.
NASCAR Betting Odds & Picks: Bass Pro Shops Night Race
Outright Favorites
Kyle Busch headlines the outrights this week for Bristol, currently sitting at +450. Presumably these odds come based on track history, both short term and long term. Bristol is where Busch owns his most career Cup victories (eight) at a single track and top-five finishes in six of his past seven races here.
However, when viewing Busch from a short-term perspective, in lieu of his 750-horsepower results, these odds are too short. Opposed to his teammates at Joe Gibbs, Busch has shown an odd propensity to race better in the lower-horsepower package. Perhaps this was the plan of the 18 team for the year, as a counter-intuitive way to make the championship. Regardless, with no victories in this package and just three top-10 finishes in nine races utilizing this setup, bettors have to decide if his track history is worth overlooking how he has raced this season.
Coming in a close second to Busch is Kyle Larson at +500. Though he has no wins at Bristol, Larson did have back-to-back second-place finishes in 2018 — both of them to Busch. However, the key to Larson’s high odds are his numbers in this high-horsepower package, especially at banked tracks. When looking at both Darlington races, Dover and Nashville, Larson has a victory (Nashville), is averaging the most laps led (170.8), with a driver rating (135.7) nearly 23 points higher than the next closest competitor (Denny Hamlin). Do not be shocked to see late action pull Larson ahead of Busch in terms of the top outright on BetMGM or quite frankly any sportsbook.
Top 10s for Bristol
BetMGM odds for potential top-10s are a proverbial wasteland. To find a bet one feels confident in, the bettor is not getting plus money to do so. For example, Ross Chastain makes a lot of sense as a top-10 candidate, but even his odds are -115 currently.
The darling of articles is going to be Matt DiBenedetto this week, currently +175 for a top-10 and +6600 to win. Enthusiasm still swoons around DiBenedetto from his runs in 2019 when he finished 12th in the spring and was a few laps away from winning later in the fall. However, what most continue to forget is that his peak was when he drove the No. 95 for Leavine Family Racing. Outside of that season, DiBenedetto has not been a real dark horse to win, much less be a threat to finish in the top 10.
It could be equipment related or DiBenedetto pressing to show that he can compete. Regardless, banking on DiBenedetto to replicate his 2019 results, when he drove for a different team and different manufacturer, might be money wasted.
Best NASCAR Betting Picks and Parlays for Bristol
The following is a list of interesting bets and parlays offered by BetMGM for Saturday evening’s Cup race.
- Winning team: Joe Gibbs +170
- Top Ford Car: Brad Keselowski +325
- Number of winning car: Under 8.5 +200
- Kyle Larson to be the top Chevrolet Car and Denny Hamlin to be the top Toyota Car: +600
- Joey Logano to finish in the top three, Chase Elliott to finish in the top five and Austin Dillon to finish in the top 10: +1800
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