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The Finish Line: NASCAR Best Bets for the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Motor Speedway on BET MGM

Phillip Bennetzen

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NASCAR Betting odds picks predictions best bets Cook Out Southern 500 Darlington Motor Speedway Kyle Larson this week BetMGM

NASCAR makes its second trip to Darlington this season for racing under the lights, Sunday evening. Using BetMGM to find all of the best NASCAR betting odds and lines, let’s take a look at the best bets we can make in this week’s outright markets, potential top-10s and props for the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Motor Speedway.

NASCAR Betting Odds & Picks: Cook Out Southern 500

Outright Favorites

2021 regular-season champion Kyle Larson is the favorite once more. After initially opening up at +275 on BetMGM, his outright has moved slightly back to +300. Larson has back-to-back runner-up finishes at Darlington, although that time spans five races, as he missed all three Darlington events last season. Regardless, in his three races at Darlington, dating back to 2018, Larson is averaging the most laps led (109), fastest laps (42) and driver rating (126.4). While the sample is shorter, compared to most others in the field, it shows just how good he was at this track in the No. 42 for Chip Ganassi. With this spring race in his rear-view mirror and his performances at Dover and Nashville in mind, it is no wonder why his odds are nearly half of the next competitor.

Speaking of his next closest competitor, the driver with the best long-run speed by far of anyone in the spring, Martin Truex Jr., ranks second in odds at +500. The crew chief of the No. 19, James Small, made it clear that focusing on repeat tracks, utilizing the 750-horsepower package, was going to be their focus in 2021. It paid off at Phoenix, it paid off at Martinsville, and it nearly paid off at Richmond. This laser focus on this package, at playoff tracks, gave Truex a truly dominating car in the spring.

That performance gave Truex his second straight race at “The Lady in Black” where his setup was dialed in leading over half the race. Since then, Truex’s numbers have been down, and his best performances have come in road courses as well as Atlanta. In the 750-horsepower package, Truex has led a total of 16 laps in three races since Darlington, all of them coming at Dover when he sat on the pole. His numbers may be on the downswing but with no practice, reliance for all drivers is going to come back to last spring’s race notes. Truex should have the upper hand based on that setup that no one could touch.

Potential Top 10 Bets

Highlighted in this week’s preview is how tough it is to pass at Darlington. Add in a Turn-2 repave job, and drivers think Darlington is going to become even tougher to pass:

For those in search of drivers to bet for top-ten finishes, the simple answer maybe just to find drivers starting in or around that same range. The driver that fits this bill while also possessing the ability to race his way up further is Aric Almirola (+270). At longer odds for a top-10, compared to Matt DiBenedetto (+175) or Austin Dillon (175), Almirola has the one thing neither driver has — prime starting position. Rolling off the grid in eighth, Almirola should be able to hold position all evening and do what he previously had done at Darlington before last spring’s early wreck — finish in the top 10.

NASCAR Best Bets and Props

The following are a list of props, parlays, and other best bets being offered by BET MGM for Sunday evening’s race:

  • Best Finish Position — Race: Joey Logano -120 versus Brad Keselowski
  • Top Ford Car: Kevin Harvick +185
  • Top Five: Joey Logano +200
  • Alex Bowman and Kyle Larson both to finish in the top five: +425
  • Kevin Harvick and Aric Almirola both to finish in the top five: +2800
  • Joey Logano to finish in the top three, Chase Elliott to finish in the top five, and Austin Dillon to finish in the top 10: +2800

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Phill Bennetzen is a father, husband, and Catholic as well as a self-professed annoying fitness guy. Phill heads up NASCAR content at Awesemo.com. You can contact Phill by emailing [email protected].

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