NASCAR makes its inaugural trip to Austin, Texas for 68 laps around the Circuit of the Americas. Let’s delve into this Sunday’s odds and lines to find some of the best NASCAR betting picks on the board — including outright favorites predictions, potential top-five finishes and some props for the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas.
NASCAR Betting Picks, Predictions & Odds
EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Favorites
To no one’s surprise, Chase Elliott opened as this week’s favorite at +225 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Dating back to 2018, Elliott holds the most wins (five) in road course races, with an average finish of eight in that time span. Oddly enough, despite that preponderance of wins at a very specific type of venue, Elliott fails to hold the best average finish among Sunday’s field. That honor goes to Martin Truex Jr., with an average finish of fifth dating back to 2018.
Despite three fewer wins and no road course victories since Sonoma of 2019, Truex wins the moniker of consistency thanks to no finish worse than 14th. Truex’s odds opened at +500 but have been whittled down to +450 while Elliott’s have moved up ever so slightly to +250. Provided NASCAR doesn’t pull any hijinks with the weather, as they did at the Daytona Road Course, these two should be your overwhelming favorites as far as outrights go. Speaking of that Daytona race, Elliott was winning before NASCAR threw that questionable yellow with fewer than 20 laps remaining.
With this being a road course race, a few of the ringers need to be mentioned. A.J. Allmendinger makes his second start of 2021 for Kaulig currently at +2800. Multiple-time Xfinity road course winner Austin Cindric makes another spot start for Penske, opening at +2200. Neither driver has seen any movement off these numbers indicating betters aren’t taking either seriously despite their pedigrees.
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Top Five Bets
Although Cindric and Allmendinger have longer odds as outright favorites, they do have notable numbers per their chances to finish in the top five. Keep in mind that Sunday’s starting order will be set by qualifying on Saturday. Thus the more skilled drivers are more likely to start inside the top 10, especially if they’re navigating through the rain like the forecast indicates. Unlike the Daytona Road Course race, these drivers aren’t going to have to spend two-thirds of the race fighting traffic just to get near the top five. With a hot lap, both Cindric and Allmendinger can put themselves in the top five before the green flag waves.
Allmendinger sits at +350 and Cindric is +275 to finish in the top five. Both drivers are going to get valuable extra seat time on Friday and Saturday. Only Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Austin Dillon, Tyler Reddick and Cole Custer can make this claim as well as they race in the Xfinity Series event. Both Allmendinger and Cindric will have a step up on the field plus starting position assuming the rain isn’t so bad that qualifying gets canceled.
At near similar odds, bettors can grab Harvick at +235. As previously mentioned, he is driving in the Xfinity Series race, so there should be a level of familiarity with the track that 90% of Sunday’s field won’t have. Furthermore, Harvick is tied with Elliott for the best average finish in road races since 2018 with seven top-10 finishes, thus taking one of the better road racers as one NASCAR betting pick and giving him extra seat time. It us all lining up for another high finish and perhaps a tail worth chasing at +1400 as an outright.
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EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Prop Bets
The following prop bets, offered by DraftKings Sportsbook, are some more interesting ways to get action in on Sunday’s race:
- Best Finishing Position – Race: Joey Logano -122 vs. Brad Keselowski
- Any Driver to Win Both Stage 1 and 2 and Win the Race: Yes +450
- Best Finishing Position – Race: A.J. Allmendinger +100 vs. Austin Cindric
- Manufacturer of Winning Car: Chevrolet +125
- Best Finishing Position – Race: Chris Buescher -104 vs. Michael McDowell
- Number of Drivers to Finish on the Lead Lap: Over 29.5 -125
- Best Finish Group E: Chris Buescher +245
- Best Finish Group F: Tyler Reddick +265
This week’s parlay combines Xfinity and Cup races together. On Saturday, attrition is going to be the word of the day. If the previously mentioned forecast holds up, Saturday’s COTA race could look eerily similar to last fall’s Charlotte Roval race. If that’s the case, surviving until the end could come down to nothing more than luck mixed with attrition. If looking at a worst-case scenario, either look up at the top or go down the board to better value.
Down the board on DraftKings Sportsbook, Miguel Paludo is +4000. Paludo is making his second start of the season for JR Motorsports after finishing seventh at the Daytona Road Course. Should this race get ugly, both with the weather and on the track, Paludo has enough expertise to navigate the potential chaos. As per Sunday, go back to Harvick finishing as the top Ford at +500. When these odds get parlayed, DraftKings Sportsbook gives +24500 odds, paying out $2,460 on a $10 bet.
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