The NASCAR Cup Series celebrates Father’s Day by marking its first-ever race at Nashville Superspeedway this Sunday. With qualifying just mere hours before the green flag, let’s review some key stats from this season and find some of the top NASCAR betting picks, odds, prop bets and predictions for the Ally 400 before the field gets set.
NASCAR Betting: Ally 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Kyle Larson, King of the Hill
Kyle Larson is hot. He is the man to beat in NASCAR, and no one seems to have an answer. Since finishing 19th at Kansas, Larson hasn’t finished worse than second. If his victory in the All-Star Race is counted in this equation, Larson comes into Nashville on the back of three straight victories. Based on this streak, Larson was appropriately priced both in DFS and the betting markets.
This week in DFS, Larson is priced at $1,200 more than the next closest driver. He opened as the outright favorite at +325 on DraftKings Sportsbook. As of Friday, June 18, that number for Larson sits at +275. Depending on the lap times he puts down in practice, plus his qualifying position, this number could easily get shaved down even more. For the foreseeable future, if betters want to bet Larson, they have to get their number early in the week.
Besides this other-worldly run of top-notch consistency, what else is going in Larson’s favor? To begin with, Nashville is a track that NASCAR hasn’t been to in a decade, so no one driver really has a step up on the others. If everyone is on the same playing field experience-wise, it boosts the chances that the best car and driver pairing excel once more. Furthermore, Goodyear is pairing tires from Dover with tires from Kansas and Charlotte. In those three combined races, Larson has a win and 722 combined laps led.
Other Outright Favorites
A three-time winner in 2021, Martin Truex Jr. opened up as the third-highest favorite at +800. Likewise, Truex has seen a wave of enthusiasm as his own outright has been betted down to +650 as he now sits second in odds. His odds saw him leapfrog Chase Elliott, who has remained pat at +700. Despite no wins in the high-horsepower/low-downforce package, Elliott appears to have been given the benefit of the doubt plus the Hendrick corollary as a teammate of Larson. In Elliott’s defense, his worst finish since Kansas is seventh at Darlington. The top-10 consistency is there, but Larson provides more win equity currently.
Denny Hamlin has been picking up steam as a trendy pick throughout the week, yet it hasn’t shown up in his odds. After opening at +800, Hamlin has managed to gain juice at +850, suggesting that betters aren’t sold yet on what Twitter is buying.
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Top Five Bets
Betting top-five finishes will be something to definitely revisit once the Cup Series holds practice tomorrow. Not only should concern be given to initial lap speeds, but also how much fall-off occurs between longer runs. Nashville is an older, abrasive, concrete track that was exposed to the elements, with no track maintenance, since 2011. Nashville’s owner, Dover International Speedway, has put time and effort into getting this track in race-worthy shape. Also, Goodyear paired with NASCAR to have a test session to ensure the tires they wanted to use could withstand Nashville. That said, Nashville could absolutely eat through these tires and overemphasize the ability to manage fall-off.
Should that be the case, grabbing early numbers on drivers who excelled at Homestead, Atlanta, Darlington, and Dover should be an edge in getting top-five bets before practice goes down. Combining this with the aspect that this race will use the 750 horsepower package, which stresses horsepower and consequently funding, the prospective list of top-fives dwindles. Outside of a late caution that finds a portion of the field off-sequence, it takes some story-telling to get behind anyone who doesn’t drive for Hendrick, Joe Gibbs, or Penske.
Ally 400 Prop Bets
The following are a list of props being offered by DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Best Finishing Position – Race: Bubba Wallace (+100) over Erik Jones
- Any driver to win both Stage 1 and 2 and win the race: Yes (+600)
- Number of drivers to finish on the lead lap: over 17.5 (-125)
- The number of drivers to lead a lap: Under 8.5 (-106)
- Top Ford Car: Joey Logano (+280)
- Driver to Finish on Lead Lap: Justin Haley (+500)
- To Lead a Lap: Bubba Wallace (+600), Matt DiBenedetto (+300), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+450)
The odds aren’t live as of now, but be sure to check back when DraftKings Sportsbook offers odds on qualifying. Whatever the number is on Kyle Larson, however small it may be, just go ahead and make that one of your top NASCAR betting picks this weekend.
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