Following racing under the lights in Charlotte, NASCAR heads back West to Sonoma for its third road race of the season. Let’s highlight some of this week’s NASCAR odds, betting picks and predictions for this week’s Toyota Save Mart 350 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Toyota Save Mart 350 NASCAR Betting Preview: Picks, Odds & Predictions
Outright Favorites
The consistent drumbeat the past few weeks has been jumping on Kyle Larson early. If bettors fail to do so, they will inevitably lose value on Larson as an outright favorite. Despite those concerns, Larson opened at +600 on DraftKings Sportsbook and has only managed to lose ground to +800. It appears, despite finishes of second, second, second and first in his past four starts, bettors are more concerned about Larson’s lackluster track record at Sonoma, with no finish better than 10th.
At best, it’s blissful ignorance. At worse, it’s cognitive dissonance. Whatever subpar numbers Larson may have at previous tracks are mere memories now that he’s piloting the No. 5.
Taking a step forward in the NASCAR betting odds is Kyle Busch, who opened +1000 and now sits +700. Following his win in the Xfinity Series race at Circuit of the Americas, Busch was in a prime position to win the Cup COTA race before deciding to pit early to grab gas. Had he stayed out like the leaders, Busch would have been the leader when the race was finally called for rain. Now he returns to Sonoma where he has five straight top-seven finishes, including a win in 2015.
With nothing against either Larson or Busch, Sunday’s race should come down to the duo of Chase Elliott (+225) and Martin Truex Jr. (+400). Elliott comes into Sonoma with six wins in the past nine road course races yet only a personal Sonoma-best finish of fourth in 2018. Truex is the defending winner at Sonoma as well as the winner in 2018 and 2013, yet he has no road course victories since that Sonoma win in 2019.
Top Five Bets
Most eyes and bets will be on drivers from two stables, Hendrick and Joe Gibbs. However, it’s a driver hailing from Penske that may be offering this weekend’s best value. While spending the majority of his career as just an above-average road racer, Joey Logano has really crafted his skill and become a contender in road races. Since the 2020 season, Logano carries the best average finish in Sunday’s field at road races (fourth) on the heels of three straight finishes third or better. These podium finishes have all come at different tracks in different weather scenarios. At +1600 as an outright and +190 as a top-five bet, Logano carries sneaky value this weekend as a NASCAR betting pick.
If +190 isn’t enough, DraftKings Sportsbook has several drivers at +800 odds or higher. Among this list is Ross Chastain, who finished fourth at COTA, and Chase Briscoe, who has multiple road course victories in the Xfinity Series. The most intriguing, and realistic, name is Chris Buescher. He has finishes of 11th at Daytona and 13th in the rain at COTA. Buescher has yet to race Sonoma with Roush, but while at JTG-Daugherty his numbers were steadily improving, including back-to-back top-16 finishes. With his higher than usual starting number, perhaps Buescher can hold position through the day and make a late charge for the top five.
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Toyota Save Mart 350 Prop Bets
The following are a list of props being offered by DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Best Finish Group B: Joey Logano +200
- Top Chevrolet Car: William Byron +700
- Best Finish Group F: Ryan Preece +290
- Daniel Suarez top 10: +275
- Chris Buescher top 10: +225
This week’s parlay incorporates the Cup and Xfinity races together. The Xfinity Series is off in Mid-Ohio, thus the Cup Series won’t see the Xfinity road ringers racing on Sunday. Regardless, Austin Cindric is the outright favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook at +165. Cindric is the most recent winner at Mid-Ohio and finished second in his first start there. With no Cup competition, Cindric will only have a few drivers like A.J. Allmendinger, Justin Allgaier and Ty Gibbs to contend with. Weather is not a factor, so the B&L Transport 170 should boil down to starting position, car, and skill — all three tools Cindric has in his pocket.
Combing Cindric’s outright number with Joey Logano’s +1600 odds to win on Sunday gives +4405 odds currently paying out $1,126.25 on a $25 bet. These odds are easily the worst for a parlay this season. However, with both races being road courses, DraftKings Sportsbook has really narrowed the numbers on what is considered attractive and attainable. Plus, with the weather expected to not be a factor in either race, the chances of outliers have decreased.
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