NHL Pick 3 – Thursday January 3rd
With college football and the NFL winding down, even more interest will be focused on the ice as 2019 gets underway. Make sure to stay tuned for additional announcements as we continue to add articles, videos and additional tools centered around our sports betting content. Make sure to follow our @AwesemoOdds twitter account for the latest.
This article is going to be focused on the upcoming seven game NHL main slate, highlight a few DFS players that stand out, and a few potential wagers against the spread. Feel free to jump in our new sports betting slack channel for additional information and updates when it comes to tonight’s action.
Biggest game on the slate
Calgary vs Boston, 7 PM EST – Calgary is one of the best teams on the road at 13-8 while Boston is one of the better ones at home with a 13-5 mark. Boston comes in with a +1.12 goal per game differential while Calgary brings a +0.81 goal per game differential. This is partly why the line only opened at Boston -140. Calgary was given a lot of respect initially by the oddmakers, despite playing on Wednesday night in Detroit.
The first thing to note is that Patrice Bergeron is back and fully healthy. Bergeron’s presence alone lifts Boston’s top line to one of the best in the league and the hardest to defend and score against. Boston’s center provides a boost to a top-ten power play unit that currently converts at 27.1%. Calgary is far from a slouch and one of the main reasons is the play of Johnny Gaudreau. He has 59 points in just 41 games and that includes four multiple point games in his last six contests. This includes 26 points in 21 road contests in 2018-19. That is part of why Calgary is so feared.
The only question that exists with Calgary is goaltending. With the injury to David Rittich (likely out again tonight), Mike Smith may start again in net. Would Calgary throw in AHL vet Jon Gillies into the fray? That does not seem likely. Boston has not named its starting goaltender yet. It is projected to be Tuukka Rask, according to sources. Rask delivered a clutch performance in the Winter Classic against Chicago — stopping all but two shots in the 4-2 victory. This game comes down to what happens after the start. Calgary can dig itself out of holes after bad starts. They showed this last night in Detroit, falling down 3-0 before rallying for a 5-3 win. They can never be counted out. Boston’s value came around the open at -140. It is ranging upward to -150 and approaching -160 on some books like FanDuel.
** Make sure to check out our new AwesemoOdds show Friday mornings 11:30 EST that breaks down the upcoming weeks NFL and College Basketball schedules from a betting perspective **
DFS Targets
Elias Pettersson – Vancouver – $6700 DK – There are plenty of top games to attack and this is not necessarily one of them. However, Montreal may have a hard time containing Pettersson and Brock Boeser in particular. This could keep the game close. Montreal is a strong -175 favorite but do not sleep on Vancouver at +150. The over/under of 6 is one to watch as Pettersson netted a hat trick last night. Carey Price has been ordinary in net for the Canadiens and his .904 save percentage scares few people.
It is why some may even want to risk a tiny portion of their bankroll and place it on Vancouver. Montreal does yield 3.26 goals per contest at home and that is a bit concerning for such a bullish favorite. Again, Pettersson and the Canucks may be able to hang with Montreal much like Calgary could do against Boston. Sometimes it is about being sneaky and going against the public action.
Claude Giroux – Philadelphia – $6600 DK – Philadelphia looked okay generally but awful in the big points of the game versus Nashville on Tuesday night.  Giroux has had some ugly performances during the first half but the Flyers forward has produced incredibly well in similar spots. The price is a solid play given Petr Mrazek is in net (2.59 GAA but .901 save percentage). Giroux should fire 3+ shots tonight and have a few chances on the man advantage as well. At some point, Philadelphia has to figure it out offensively. Furthermore, the line shifted back to -115 with some books offering -105 to even -110. A good value range is anywhere from -105 to -113.
Games Against the Spread
Washington -120 – Washington travels to St. Louis to face a Blues team struggling mightily at home. The Blues allow 3.64 goals a game at home so yielding two against the New York Rangers was an accomplishment. The Capitals possess a few more weapons, including Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Kuznetsov (now reunited again). It is intriguing that 71% of the public is currently betting the over and the team over for Washington is approaching 3.5. The Capitals have been one of the hotter teams in the league (winning 15 of their last 20).
If one risked 0.5 units or a full unit on Washington, that would not be too much of a stretch. See if the team under for St. Louis dips any more, then maybe take a modest bet on that. A quick update on FanDuel sportsbook says this game is now even.
Montreal -175, Over 6 –  Breaking down this game indicates a possible buy at -175 for a Montreal team win. Watch to see who starts for Montreal but it projects to be Carey Price currently. As mentioned earlier in our Pettersson blurb, Montreal scores as good as it gets at home (3.32 goals scored, 3.26 goals allowed). The only concern here is Vancouver comes in after playing last night in Ottawa. However, that was an entertaining game where Ottawa came back and forced overtime which cemented the over.
Notable Score Props
Take a look at the New York Islanders at -140 to score first. Chicago is almost an automatic to give up the first goal (10 of their last 12 games). The Islanders, at home, tend to get off to fast starts. They have won four straight and jumped out to leads in the previous three. Chicago went a whole month almost without scoring first. If the Islanders can draw an early power play, that chance goes up even higher. Consider Chicago’s road penalty kill is just over 72%.
If you have any questions, find me in the sports betting channel on the Awesemo.com premium slack chat or @ChrisWasselDFS on twitter.
