The Trail Blazers and Timberwolves will play the second game of a back-to-back set tonight. Portland took the first game by a four-point margin after they got a team-high 26 points from Carmelo Anthony, as Karl-Anthony Towns‘ 34 points weren’t enough to buoy Minnesota. If you’re looking for an edge on the NBA betting market, here are the key trends and my predictions for tonight’s game.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Game Info
Portland Trail Blazers (22-15) at Minnesota Timberwolves (8-30)
Date: Sunday, Mar. 14, 2021
Start Time: 8 p.m. EST
Venue: Target Center — Minneapolis, Minn.
The Blazers and Wolves played a tight game last night that Portland didn’t win until the fourth quarter. Lillard had to play 36 minutes, and Minnesota left Towns in for 34. They may be a bit gassed tonight, but both teams usually play their stars in back-to-back sets.
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Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Spread Trends and Prediction: Trail Blazers -5
The trends point to some value on Portland. At 19-18 against the spread, they have the 13th-best record in the NBA. They are far ahead of Minnesota, whose 16-21-1 record against the spread ranks sixth worst. However, the Timberwolves have done better at home, as they’re 8-10 against the spread in Minneapolis and 7-9 against the spread as home underdogs.
The Trail Blazers have been fantastic on the road. They have gone 12-7 against the spread outside of Portland and 4-3 against the spread when listed as away favorites.
I built an NBA betting model to make a prediction for each game, and it agrees with the trends. It favors Portland by a 5.2-point margin, a nose above where the books have this spread. It comes to that conclusion because of the difference in offensive efficiency; the Trail Blazers rank sixth best, while the Timberwolves are fifth worst.
With the trends and my model in agreement, I’ll take Portland against the spread.
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Total Trends and Prediction: Over 234
The trends point to value on the over tonight. The over percentages for both teams are above 50%, and Portland (56.8%) and Minnesota (52.6%) are at or above the league average. Portland’s over percentage even jumps a hair to 57.9% when they play on the road, although Minnesota’s falls to 50% when they play at home.
The lack of rest should also help this one go over. Portland’s over percentage skyrockets to 71.4% when they play without rest and to 72.2% when they play a team on equal rest.
My betting model doesn’t love the over, as it projects these teams for 224.6 points. That number would remain below the posted total if the teams weren’t playing on a back-to-back too.
I’ll side with the trends over my model here, partly because these teams combined for 246 points last night.
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Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves NBA Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
If you agree with my take and favor Portland, you can get them with the best juice at most of our featured books. BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet and William Hill all have the same line (-110). Should you disagree, every book has the same line for Minnesota. However, that may change as tip-off approaches, so make sure to check OddsShopper to confirm that you’re still getting the best deal.
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves NBA Total Picks + Odds Shopping
I like the over tonight because of the trends. If you agree, you can head over to FanDuel Sportsbook or William Hill for the lowest-set total. You can also add a half-point and head to SugarHouse for a slightly better line (-108). Should you disagree and favor the under, you can head to BetMGM for the highest-set total, or you can check out PointsBet for the best juice (-105). As always, you can keep track of all line movement directly through OddsShopper.
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