Happy Monday and brand new week to all. There’s nothing like the reset and clean slate that comes with the start of each new week. This sentiment is applicable not just to work and life in general, but to NBA betting as well. No matter how last week went, it’s time to wipe the slate clean and start anew. This NBA player props column is a great place to start. Today’s featured NBA betting picks involve props on Jae’Sean Tate, Bojan Bogdanovic and Michael Porter Jr.
In addition to breaking down each play, you will see images from the Awesemo OddsShopper Tool throughout this article. Be sure to check out the tool for yourself ahead of making your NBA betting picks. Its side-by-side comparison of the odds across all sportsbooks in the market makes it the perfect resource for ensuring optimal betting value.Â
Now let’s dive into Monday’s top plays.
NBA Betting Prediction: NBA Player Props | April 19
Jae’Sean Tate Over 2.5 Assists
Tate would need to exceed his season assist average by nearly one to go over tonight’s NBA betting prop line of 2.5. Yet, considering recent form and the associated odds, it is hard not to pass up a play on the over. In fact, Tate has managed to exceed his per-game average of 2.2 assists in seven of the last 10 games. This includes totaling four or more assists in each of the last four.
The Rockets have been all over the map this season in terms of personnel. Through all the chaos, Tate has maintained a healthy average of 29 minutes per game. In seven of the last eight outings, he has played over 30. The bump in playing time has certainly led to impressive contributions. In the end, the fact that this prop has been juiced so heavily to the under points in the opposite direction. The +140 odds on Tate to exceed 2.5 assists mathematically shapes up to be a strong EV play.
Bojan Bogdanovic Under 4.5 Rebounds
Bogdanovic has been one of the most inconsistent players this NBA season. This includes both his shooting numbers and his contributions in other statistical areas. After playing 40 minutes in the last game against the Lakers (who he will face tonight), one would think that number will regress. The Awesemo NBA Betting Player Props Tool has its eyes locked on playing Bogdanovic under 4.5 total rebounds. It is hard to argue the play after further digging into the numbers.
On the season, Bogdanovic is averaging four rebounds per game. Yet despite playing high minutes in each of the last two games, he checked in with just three boards on each occasion. Another point of interest concerning Utah’s most recent outing is the fact that Rudy Gobert missed the game with an injury. He is listed as probable to be back for tonight’s game, which likely means there will be fewer rebounding opportunities available for a Bogdanovic. On top of that, the Lakers rank seventh in the NBA in team rebounding this season. Even as they are banged up, Los Angeles has continued to cause problems for opponents on the glass.Â
As seen in the image of the OddsShopper Tool above, the line on this NBA player props offering is only 4.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Bettors are advised to take advantage as soon as possible before it moves to match the rest of the NBA betting market.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 21.5 Points
As a team, the Nuggets are down two key players in the backcourt. After losing Jamal Murray for the season to a torn ACL, Denver saw backup point guard Monte Morris strain his hamstring last Friday as well. These absences will put more of an onus on the Nuggets’ other players in tonight’s matchup against the Grizzlies. That includes Porter, who has been playing excellent basketball of late.Â
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After facing an uphill battle earning minutes earlier in the season, Porter is producing big numbers in recent weeks. He has been on the court for a minimum of 29 minutes in each of the last 10 games. That same stretch has also seen him exceed 35 minutes five times. Porter has scored 20-plus points in nine of the last 10 games as well. This stretch has been a major uptick relative to his season scoring average of 17.6 points per game.
Given the sheer lack of depth the Nuggets have, Porter will once again see big minutes tonight. The Grizzlies are far from the best defense he has seen in this recent blistering stretch. Memphis will also be without center Jonas Valanciunas due to a concussion, which could open up more driving lanes and looks at the rim for Porter. In addition, outside of Nikola Jokic and Will Barton (who is no sure thing lately), it is unclear where else the Nuggets will find reliable scoring tonight. The NBA betting line may be well above his season average, but Porter is in a good spot to have another big game.
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