After a planned night off in South Beach to rest a hamstring, James Harden returns tonight and rejoins the 76ers lineup. The team is 4-0 since Harden’s arrival but comes off a loss to the Heat, where the offense limped to 82 points. Joel Embiid remains the odds-on favorite to win the MVP and the 76ers are getting dominating performances from Tyrese Maxey. That alone has taken pressure off Tobias Harris to be a consistent second, or third, scoring option. Despite the hiccup in Miami, the 76ers are still winners of seven out of their last 10 games, staying three games ahead of the Celtics in the loss column. Paul Millsap is the lone player on the injury report so expect usual minutes from Harden.
Chicago head coach Billy Donovan was nearly certain that Nikola Vucevic would play through a hamstring injury tonight, but even if he does go, he should be somewhat limited. Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso are still out, which would leave Chicago relying on DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine even more than usual. The Bulls are fading fast. Not only have they dropped four straight games, but they also watched the Bucks win four straight of their own. Chicago’s most recent loss came Friday night in Milwaukee, so at least they had off for the weekend.
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NBA Player Props & Picks Today | Bulls vs. 76ers
Chicago Bulls vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Date: Monday, March 7, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. EST
Venue: Wells Fargo Center — Philadelphia, PA
Coverage: League Pass
Best Bulls vs. 76ers NBA Bets Today & Odds Shopping
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76ers -3.5 First Half Spread: -110 (BetMGM)
The 76ers are a heavier favorite tonight at home as they are laying 7 points. The Bulls are certainly struggling, but the return of Harden also bumps this line past two full possessions. The best way to attack the 76ers tonight is capitalizing on Harden’s return, plus how he has looked so far as a 76er. Harden should walk back into the starting lineup and begin producing right away. Philadelphia has struggled in the second half to hold leads, so the best angle is to take them in the first half. Harden alone should feel shot out of a cannon, and his teammates immediately benefit from the spacing. The Bulls have not been great defensively. They rank 18th in defensive scoring per game and cannot expect Ayo Dosunmu nor LaVine to shut down Harden.
Without Vucevic, this is a lost cause for the Bulls, especially because the 76ers are in prime “bounce-back” mode following their most recent loss. Chicago is just downward-spiraling and even if they come out strong in the first quarter, they cannot sustain it for the entire half. OddsShopper is fantastic at giving the best returns on any side, allowing a much smaller number at -3.5 versus holding on for an entire game .
Tobias Harris Over 15.5 Points: -116 (FanDuel)
This is actually a great number to attack the over with Harris, primarily because of his volatility before Harden’s arrival. Harris has benefitted from his new teammate’s spacing, where he should get an extra couple of looks from 3, plus chances to take a late defender off the dribble. While so much focus has been on the trio of Harden, Embiid and Maxey, expect Harris to sneak in for a good night. Awesemo’s free projection has Harris at 19.3 points. OddsShopper has a 70% xWin chance of this prop hitting, along with a 31% xROI.
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DeMar DeRozan Under 6.5 Rebounds: -140 (DraftKings)
Granted, there is considerable juice at -140 in staying under this prop, but it is backed by OddsShopper data. DeRozan has a tough matchup on the glass tonight against the 76ers, and his team may also be down to limit some of his minutes. Awesemo’s free projection is rather low compared to the number at the books, which helps mitigate the damage in juice. This is the top OddsShopper xWin bet for this game with a 73% chance the prop stays under. He has been under this number in two of the five games since the All-Star Break but has not gone over seven rebounds in any of them.
Zach LaVine 4+ Made 3’s: +210 (FanDuel)
Nine attempts is the target tonight. LaVine just needs a floor of nine shots from deep to hit this number at just over two-to-one. He comes off a 10-attempt night in Milwaukee, and is averaging 8.5 attempts over his past two games. The matchup is not a deterrent to stay away from this prop, even if LaVine sees a healthy dose of Matisse Thybulle. The 76ers have recently struggled to defend the 3 against better shooters, and LaVine should get enough volume to compliment the matchup.
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