Philadelphia comes off a frustrating home loss yesterday to Toronto, now with little time to regroup before hosting the Heat. Miami sits atop the Eastern Conference looking for its third straight win, as the 76ers are 3.5 games back and sitting in third place. Jimmy Butler is questionable heading into tonight’s game, but Joel Embiid is out; he has missed time since Jan. 31. There are no other key injuries for the Sixers, as they will continue to rely heavily on the backcourt duo of James Harden and Tyrese Maxey, especially without Embiid.
Miami was down Butler in their most recent win, along with Victor Oladipo and Gabe Vincent; the latter two are not expected to play tonight. Miami keeps getting solid production from Butler and Tyler Herro, as they are staggered and averaging 21.1 points per game apiece. Miami should lean more on Max Strus and Duncan Robinson in the backcourt against the Sixers. Bam Adebayo added 19 points in Miami’s most recent win against the Thunder.
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NBA Player Props & Picks Today | Heat vs. 76ers
Best Heat vs. 76ers NBA Bets Today & Odds Shopping
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Miami -4: -110 (BetMGM)
The 76ers are a different team without their MVP in the middle, and Harden hasn’t quite taken over as expected. Miami has been playing well and should see both Butler and Caleb Martin play tonight. The Heat have been off since Friday when they played a home game against the Thunder, and the strain of the back-to-back is already having an impact on the Sixers. Both teams are playing well on defense, which should keep the pacing slower in this game. It ultimately comes down to Miami having a better chance of beating the Sixers without Embiid than both teams playing to the under. The Heat won 10 of their last 11 games in the Eastern Conference, as opposed to a Sixers team that’s 1-5 against the spread over their last six games.
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James Harden Under 2.5 Made 3’s: +120 (FanDuel)
Things have settled down to a near halt for Harden following an initial explosion from behind the 3-point arc. Harden hasn’t seen the expected increase in 3-point volume, which in turn has hurt his makes, especially with higher totals like 2.5 on the books. Awesemo’s projection has Harden finishing with 2.3 made 3’s. OddsShopper has a 60% chance of Harden staying under while adding a 32% xROI on the play. Harden is only averaging 1.8 makes off 6.1 attempts over nine games played in March.
Kyle Lowry Over 5.5 Assists: -122 (FanDuel)
Kyle Lowry should benefit exponentially with the return of Butler on the floor from a passing standpoint. The data indicates Lowry should smash his total at the books, with Awesemo projecting a 6.8 assist night from the Heat point guard. OddsShopper has a 21% xROI on the play, backed with a 67% chance of hitting six-plus assists. Lowry failed to hit this number in his last two games, against the Pistons then the Thunder, but he did in three straight before that, all against playoff-bound teams.
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Tyrese Maxey Under 4.5 Assists: -150 (FanDuel)
This is an anchor play, be it in a parlay or same-game parlay, as the juice itself may not warrant an individual play. The other angle is to lay 1.5 units to win 1, especially as the OddsShopper data suggests it’s worth the risk. Awesemo has Maxey projected for 3.1 assists, combined with a 32% xROI on the play. OddsShopper also has a strong 79% chance of Maxey staying under, so it’s worth the extra juice or using it as an anchor play for parlays.
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