The Warriors are hoping a two-game win streak is the first step in forgetting a rough stretch. Despite the recent wins, Steph Curry and his squad come in winners of just five of ten, and are not expecting Klay Thompson again tonight. Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole have helped pick up the slack, but the Warriors are still without Draymond Green. Dallas is healthy and has won four of its last five outings – eight of ten overall. Luka Doncic is getting help from Kristaps Porzingis, and Dallas saw a defensive explosion last game from Dorian Finney-Smith.
Make sure to keep checking OddsShopper, as the status for players can change by the minute. The site is 100% free to use and offers Awesemo’s projections, the best return and at which book to place the wager.
Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks Today | Mavericks vs. Warriors
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Best Mavs vs. Warriors NBA Bets Today & Odds Shopping
The easiest place to find the best bets in the NBA is on the one-stop shop for value and where to place a wager. The best part is the tool is free and easy to use. Simply filter, sort the page and find the best return available across all books.
Mavs 1st Quarter ML (+115, BetMGM)
Dallas comes in with a recent hot streak of basketball but also a convincing 3-0 record at the Chase Center. Porzingis comes fresh off a strong outing and should help Doncic right away get up on the Warriors. Despite Curry’s best efforts, the Warriors are still out of sync with Thompson’s role not fully restored. The Warriors are the slight favorite to win the game, but thanks to OddsShopper we find a solid return on the first quarter dog in Dallas. Golden State losing the first quarter is not solely based on Thompson’s status, as Dallas is coming in with a nice stretch where they hung tight with the Suns then beat up Memphis. We want to take advantage of the Warriors needing some time to figure it out tonight and pound Dallas to win the first quarter.
Luka Doncic Under 26.5 Points (-105, DraftKings)
Our projections have Doncic getting to 22 points but nowhere near this total on the books. We get in at -105 thanks to OddsShopper finding the best return. Awesemo has Doncic projected for 22.4 points and OddsShopper has a 70% xWin chance of this bet hitting. It is the second-highest xWin bet we have in this game. We have a fantastic xROI at 37% on this play, as Doncic will not be slowed down so much as he is getting more help around him. We have seen Doncic comfortably stay under this number while the Mavs still win games. He finished with 26 last time these two teams played.
Otto Porter Under 2.5 Assists (-105, Draftkings)
We do not anticipate Otto Porter being a big part of the passing game tonight. Awesemo projects Porter to finish with 2.1 assists and OddsShopper sees a 64% xWin chance of it hitting. We have a decent 26% xROI on this play. You will not find many books offering this prop because of how small of a market it is, but that is the overwhelming benefit of OddsShopper in finding a book that will take this bet.
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Jalen Brunson SGP Over 3.5 Rebounds/4.5 Assists (+231 FanDuel)
We can take these two strong plays from OddsShopper and combine them for an even larger payout. The books are still a little low on Jalen Brunson as his volume decreased with Doncic back, and we have two props here that fit together with our game script. Brunson is still involved and will get plenty of minutes to help facilitate 5 assists and grab 4 rebounds. Awesemo has Brunson projected for 4 rebounds and 5 assists, so we are still within a positive gap between projection and prop total. Both plays have a 57% xWin chance of hitting. We have seen Brunson go over this rebound total in four of his last six games, and crush this assist total in nine of twelve contests.
Kristaps Porzingis 3+ 3’s (+330, FanDuel)
Porzingis is hovering. We just need him to push through and knock one more shot down. He has been at two makes in each of his last two games, but the volume leads us to believe a third make is right around the corner. He was just 2-7 and before that 2-4, so we see an effort to get Porzingis looks from three. Without Green, it is a little easier to lure defenders out for an easier shot, at least with less pressure in his face. The bet relies on Porzingis getting a similar amount of looks from three, and this matchup against the Warriors should provide ample opportunity. His over/under sits at 1.5 at -105 – which is a solid bet, but we can certainly do better with over triple the payout.
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