If it’s not COVID, it’s just basic injury that’s consistently preventing a full Nets squad from taking the floor. Once again Brooklyn is in limbo up to game time with two of its top three stars. Both Kyrie Irving and James Harden participated in the shootaround earlier on Wednesday, but neither were moved from their questionable tag. If both sit then expect it to have an adverse effect on Kevin Durant. The Nets have dropped three of their last five, still trying to re-acclimate Irving on the road. Chicago comes in fresh off beating Detroit last night — following a loss to the Mavs which ended a nine-game winning streak for the Bulls. The back-t0-back might impact DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine, but the Bulls have been red hot regardless of schedule.
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Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks | Nets vs. Bulls
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Best Nets vs. Bulls NBA Bets Today & Odds Shopping
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Bulls -1.5 (-110, DraftKings)
We can head to OddsShopper and find even the slightest edge as the side has already been shopped for us. Some books are still at -2, so getting anything below that at the same juice is a bonus. The Nets are awaiting word to start two of their top three players due to injury, meaning it will be a factor even if it slows down the team a little bit. Chicago bounced right back after dropping an ugly game to the Mavs on Sunday. There are three different factors to consider here, and two of three make this line even more favorable to Chicago. Irving and Harden could both miss the game or only one, and the Bulls should be more of a -5.5/6-point “true” favorite. Even if both stars play, they still have to contend with the seventh-best scoring offense and a top-12 scoring defense with the Bulls. Chicago should run away with this one.
Kevin Durant Under 31.5 Points (-125, Caesers)
This prop should hold regardless of who is around Durant tonight for one key reason — the Bulls defense. We have the ability on OddsShopper to sort by xWin percentage, and this prop comes in at 72% — the highest rated prop for this game. Some of this is simply the assumption that Durant won’t be out there alone, as Harden seems to be trending towards playing. We never know until it’s official, so keep checking for injury updates, then come back to OddsShopper to see what’s adjusted. IF Harden and/or Irving are out there, then we have no problem fading Durant’s points, and want to jump in now — as we get closer to tip. So much of these player props are trying to get ahead of overs earlier in the day, then firing on unders as we get closer to tip. The idea being that COVID/injury will impact movement on lines, rather quickly. For what it’s worth, Durant has only gone over 30 points once in the last six games.
Nikola Vucevic Under 17.5 Points (-120, PointsBet)
The good news about playing any Bulls props is we aren’t waiting on any major game-time decisions. Nikola Vucevic is coming off a big game where he dropped 22 points against the Pistons. Matchup aside, the correlation to Vucevic scoring more is him taking — and hitting — more threes. He hasn’t been shooting the ball that well from behind the arc, so a regression to the middle is easily expected. The game is projected to be a little lower scoring based on OddsShopper liking a lot of unders for points — including both of Vucevic’s teammates in Lonzo Ball and DeRozan. OddsShopper gives it a 58% xWin chance of going over, as Awesemo has Vucevic projected for 16.1 points. The xROI isn’t fantastic at 7% but it’s a positive one.
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Lonzo Ball 15+ Points (+114, FanDuel)
OddsShopper is in favor of Ball struggling from the floor tonight but doesn’t completely factor in both Nets guards possibly sitting. Ball should have less resistance on him be it Patty Mills or a combo of injured Irving/Mills and some of an injured Harden. There’s also the real chance that Ball has Mills and even more backups coming his way. The Bulls score a lot of points, so the path of least resistance is Ball taking advantage of mismatches, then opening up lanes for DeRozan and Vucevic. We have his prop sitting at 13.5 points, but going over this number is better played at 15-plus for a positive return. Ball has dropped 18 points in two of his last four, shooting the ball efficiently from the field. The Nets may also simply be willing to take 18-20 from Ball tonight if it means slowing down DeRozan.
Lonzo Ball 4+ 3-Pointers (+170, FanDuel)
We would love to see a flat +200 on this return but the books are wise to the game with Ball. He’s averaging the most attempts at just over 7.5 per game, and edges out Zach LaVine for the most makes per game at 3.2 3-pointes. We’ve also seen Ball go for 4, 3, and before that six made 3s in his last three games. We love him going over his points prop — mainly due to the matchup — so we stand to gain double by betting that plus this three-pointer prop. Before you jump to a Same Game Parlay, note that since the two plays are correlated, the parlay takes this +170 and Ball’s 15-plus points at +114 to equal only +184. Just play them separately and watch Ball torch Brooklyn all night.
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