Miami has not been hit by COVID like other teams. Instead, Miami is down players the old-fashioned way, injury. They expect Tyler Herro back but are still down Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo — two of their top three scorers. The Pacers are getting Malcolm Brogdon back from injury and expect Rick Carlisle back on the bench. Despite the injury situation, Miami has won four of six and has an 18-13 record against the spread. The Pacers are healthy and come off a beating of Detroit, which stopped a two-game skid. It is imperative to check the 100% free OddsShopper tool for the latest value on games and player props. As players go in and out of the rotation, OddsShopper combines the best value from a book and Alex Baker’s projections on Awesemo.
Best NBA Betting Picks & Props | Pacers vs. Heat
Pacers vs. Heat NBA Betting Picks + Odds Shopping
The easiest place to find the best bets in the NBA is on OddsShopper, the one-stop shop for value and where to place a wager. The best part is the tool is free and easy to use. Simply filter, sort the page and find the best return available across all books.
Heat Moneyline (+105, PointsBet)
Miami is five games above .500 and is watching Kyle Lowry take over games to keep the Heat above water. They get Herro back tonight against the Pacers — who have been healthier more often than the Heat and still find themselves with a losing record. The Heat do not need any adjustment games for Herro to come back into this rotation. Expect him, Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson and Max Strus to come out firing. Indiana will keep it close, as they have not traded Domantas Sabonis or Myles Turner quite yet, but they are still lacking in depth despite getting quality minutes from Chris Duarte. OddsShopper gives the best option on how to play this game from a side or total. Getting plus money on the Heat at home feels right.
Dewayne Dedmon Over 9.5 Points (-118 FanDuel)
This is a perfect prop for OddsShopper‘s player props tool. The one guy who will not be impacted with anyone coming back other than Adebayo is Dedmon. OddsShopper gives this a 62% expected chance of going over, combined with what Dedmon has done without Miami’s starting center on the floor. Dedmon has hit double-digit points in five straight games. Even with limited minutes in two of those games, he has still had enough touches to get above 9.5 points. The matchup is certainly tough going up against the Pacers, but Dedmon recently survived a matchup against Joel Embiid with a double-double.
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Domantas Sabonis Under 4.5 Assists (+110 FanDuel)
OddsShopper sees this bet having a 54% expected win rate on the under. Sabonis is projected to hit 4.5 assists, right on the number, but there is still a 4% break and positive return at +110. The projection and actual bet are exactly the same number. It is a risk, but Sabonis is a volatile passer. He has gone over this number in five of eight games this month but is still averaging 4.5 assists per game. There is always a zero lurking somewhere out there.
Kyle Lowry Under 9.5 Assists (-127 DraftKings)
This one is a combination of OddsShopper‘s prediction, a little bit of expected regression against the Pacers and Awesemo’s projection. Lowry comes off two straight games of double-digit assists but also gets a more ball-dominant scorer in Herro back. Brogdon may be struggling on offense, but defensively he still presents a tough obstacle for Lowry. There is also the possibility that Lowry simply will turn into a scoring machine and Herro will become more of a facilitator. There are a couple of different ways to reach the same conclusion and a 65% expected win rate for this bet going under the number.
Moneyline/Point Total — Heat/Over 211.5 (+300 DraftKings)
One misconception about teams going to backups rather than pulling guys off the street is that nobody can shoot the ball. That has not been the case with Miami, as they have seen shooters step in for other shooters and not miss a beat. The total sits at 210.5, a point below this line, and the Heat winning this game at +105 was a play earlier in this column. The Pacers are not interested in slowing it down to a halt, and neither are the Heat, no matter where they place in pace rankings. Neither team needs to run up and down the floor to hit the over.
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