The Nuggets continue their push to distance themselves from any play-in scenario. Barely above water, they remain in the sixth seed ahead of tonight’s action. Denver is 1.5 games ahead of Minnesota and is two games back behind the Jazz and Mavericks. Once again, Nikola Jokic finds himself in MVP conversations as the Nuggets have done mostly all of this without their second and third-best players on the team. They will need another monster effort from Jokic to hold off a burning hot Suns team that is looking to clinch the top seed in the Western Conference. Denver is coming off a high-scoring victory over the Clippers on Tuesday, with strong performances from Aaron Gordon and Jeff Green. The Nuggets will try to counter Devin Booker‘s expected productivity with a combination of Will Barton and Monte Morris.
A win tonight will secure a home-court advantage for Phoenix as the top seed out west. As impressive as Denver has been without Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray, the Suns are riding a six-game win streak without Chris Paul and are an impressive 11-4 straight up without him in the lineup. Cameron Payne has filled in for the injured Paul, with Booker providing a huge spark. Deandre Ayton won the battle of big men last night in Minnesota, and Mikal Bridges helped fill up the stat sheet. Cameron Johnson missed his 10th straight game last night with a quad injury and is not expected to go tonight.
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NBA Player Props & Picks Today | Suns vs. Nuggets
Best Suns vs. Nuggets NBA Bets Today & Odds Shopping
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Over 231.5: -110 (FanDuel)
The Nuggets normally would have stocked up some momentum after a nice bounce-back win over the Clippers, but Denver is just hosting the wrong team tonight. It clearly does not matter that Paul is out, as Phoenix still has a dominating sense of comfort on the floor. They have won six straight even with Booker being inconsistent at times and are a top-five team in points scored and points allowed per game. Add to the mix that Denver has failed to cover a spread in four of their last five home games, and they have gone over the total in four straight games. OddsShopper will always find the best number to play along with the best book, so there is a slight break in going over 231.5 points. Phoenix has a nice stretch against Denver, winning five of their last six meetings, so expect the Suns to come out shooting. Denver saw an overtime loss to Cleveland that capped off a road trip, followed by a disappointing home loss to the Celtics, but found an offensive stride against LA that should carry into tonight’s game.
Make sure to check OddsShopper throughout the day for the best value and return on any NBA betting pick today. It is also important to check as Awesemo’s projections update and shift any initial data earlier in the day.
Aaron Gordon Under 5.5 Rebounds: -125 (DraftKings)
Gordon is coming off a solid performance against the Clippers, but do not expect him to push many Suns players around tonight. Awesemo’s free projection has Gordon finishing with 4.9 rebounds, just clearing the 5.5 total at the books. OddsShopper has a 64% chance of hitting the prop, as the matchup against the Suns on the glass will not be favorable to Gordon. He is averaging 4.9 rebounds in 11 games played so far in March, which is another good indicator in going under 5.5, especially against the Suns.
Nikola Jokic Over 26.5 Points: -110 (FanDuel)
It is just so hard to ignore how dominant Jokic was against LA and how he keeps responding to big pressure games. This one is huge; not only to preserve the sixth seed but also to fend off a red-hot Suns squad. This is the perfect game for Jokic to hit 30+ points, but there is nothing wrong with settling for 27. Awesemo has the reigning MVP projected for 27.1 points, along with a 53% chance from OddsShopper that Jokic goes over 26.5 points. Another positive is Jokic hitting this number in at least six of his last seven games when his team is favored.
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Devin Booker Under 6.5 Assists: -142 (FanDuel)
OddsShopper loves this play as one of the strongest xROI in the Suns – Nuggets game, as backed by Awesemo’s data. Booker comes off a 28-point performance last night in Minnesota, with 13 made free throws in the process. The scoring is up, averaging at least 20 points in 14 straight games, so expect him to finish a little below his assist average. OddsShopper has a strong 71% chance of this prop hitting, along with a 21% xROI. Booker is projected to finish with 5.3 assists from Awesemo, which is a rather wide gap between projection and total. This is a great parlay piece, as the juice is asking to lay 1.5 units to win one.
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