The Knicks better become organized, as they cannot quite stay at .500, no matter how good they look getting back to that point. The Timberwolves come fresh off a beating of the Warriors where both Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell struggled from the floor. Karl-Anthony Towns did not, as he continues to run through opponents after missing six games with COVID. The Timberwolves trio will have some help as Minnesota is hoping for similar performances off the bench from Jaylen Nowell and Malik Beasley, as they were integral in beating the Warriors. Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett were lone bright spots on the stat sheet for the Knicks, but their most recent loss to Charlotte snapped a three-game win streak, once again putting the Knicks at .500 on the year. Kemba Walker and Nerlens Noel are expected to remain out for New York.
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Best Timberwolves vs. Knicks NBA Bets Today & Odds Shopping
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Timberwolves -3 (-110, BetMGM)
The Knicks need to bounce back from a loss, but the Timberwolves are coming into this game hoping a couple of guys can bounce back from poor performances in a win. That is a significant difference, especially since the Timberwolves downed the Warriors. Russell and Edwards stand a better chance of shooting the ball better than the Knicks getting a better team performance. This is still right at a full basket, and thanks to OddsShopper bettors can avoid having to lay any hook. The Timberwolves are simply a better team. They are deeper than the Knicks and have too tough of a matchup in Towns. The Knicks have Mitchell Robinson and a prayer that Randle or Barrett will step up to help with any rebounding, but none can slow down Towns. All Minnesota needs is one of their co-stars to return to normal, and they will cover this line in New York.
Malik Beasley Under 10.5 Points (-110, DraftKings)
This play would make sense as a correlation to seeing Edwards and Russell having bigger games. Malik Beasley took full advantage of that opportunity against the Warriors, but that was because both stars were struggling. There is far less chance that they continue to struggle in two straight games, especially with the second team being the Knicks. OddsShopper gives a 63% chance of going under 10.5 points and a decent 19% expected ROI. Awesemo has Beasley projected to finish with 8.8 points, which makes sense that he would take a little more of a back seat at Madison Square Garden. The Timberwolves will certainly win and cover, but not in a blowout. That would further limit Beasley’s chances to go over this point total. OddsShopper gives us a bunch of different options on multiple player props, including smaller market bets like Beasley.
R.J. Barrett Under 20.5 Points (-108, FanDuel)
Another big opportunity to take advantage of a game script that will not be favorable to the Knicks. OddsShopper likes Barrett to stay under 20.5 point 61% of the time with an expected of 17%. Awesemo has Barrett finishing at 18.6 points as he once again will stay under his point total. The Knicks were beaten badly by the Hornets and Barrett struggled from the floor. The Timberwolves will target him, probably ahead of Randle, to slow him down early in the game. Barrett had a stretch of three straight games where he was over 20 points, but he has had off nights far too often. He will not be able to shoot his way out of any continued slump, nor will he be able to compensate elsewhere if he is missing shots, like from 3 or the free-throw line.
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Karl-Anthony Towns Under 23.5 Points (-110, FanDuel)
OddsShopper has Towns finishing under 23.5 points 59% of the time, a rather decent expected win rate on such a low point total. This correlates with the game scripts, as the Timberwolves will get plenty of help from Edwards and Russell, also helping to build a healthy lead over the Knicks. There may not be enough minutes from Towns tonight to pound this over, especially if the Timberwolves have a big lead in the third quarter. Awesemo has Towns projected for 21.7 points, so nearly a 2-point gap to work with on this bet. This play is also about shot volume for the Timberwolves center, as his attempts go so does his scoring. Expect more of a 10 to 11 attempt night, as his teammates will do the majority of damage to the Knicks backcourt. By staying in that low shot attempt range tonight, Towns will not have the time on the floor to go over 23.5 points, let alone 20.
D’Angelo Russell 5+ Made 3-Pointers (+300, FanDuel)
I do not love the return being only 3-to-1 but it is still favorable to a realistic outcome. Russell will have a far better shooting night than he did against the Knicks, so there should be a little movement of this line out of recency bias. Before that game on Sunday, Russell was launching from everywhere, with double-digit attempts in his two previous games. Over his last four games Russell has hit a minimum of four 3’s, with five- and 6-make nights. The Knicks focus will not be to shut down Russell from 3, if they even focus on him before Edwards and Towns. There should be some easier looks at the basket for Russell, and a continued emphasis by the Timberwolves to feed him from 3.
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