The Warriors open up the first game of a back-to-back Monday night in Indiana, as all eyes are on Stephen Curry looking to become the all-time leader in made 3-pointers. Curry is just six shy of tying Ray Allen, needing seven to set the record. The Pacers have won three straight at home and will throw everything they can at Curry to avoid history. There is value on the board thanks to OddsShopper, so let’s take a look at the top Warriors vs. Pacers NBA Betting Picks utilizing Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool.
Best NBA Betting Picks & Player Props for Warriors vs. Pacers Tonight
Warriors vs. Pacers NBA Betting Picks + Odds Shopping
The easiest place to find the best bets in the NBA is on OddsShopper, the one-stop shop for value and where to place your wager. The best part is the tool is free and easy to use. Simply filter, sort the page and find the best return available across all books. There is one play on the game and three player props:
Under 213.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Golden State comes off a rough loss in Philadelphia, as the team looks pressed trying to figure out when Curry will break the record. OddsShopper has the ability to sort for the best price on the Warriors, which is -3.5 as road favorites. Golden State may be incredibly top heavy when it comes to point production but will have Draymond Green available to guide their defense. Despite losing two of their last five, the Warriors still boast the league’s top scoring defense, giving up just 100.4 points per game as Green continues to make a push for Defensive Player of the Year. The Pacers have looked better as of recent but lack a consistent lead scorer who can help take over a game. Indiana should be able to limit anyone not named Curry, especially with Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis lurking down low. The Pacers will try their best with Malcolm Brogdon on Curry, among others, but ultimately the Warriors pull away, as their focus will be entirely on getting Curry open looks. The under is 18-7-1 for Golden State on the year, and the Pacers do not have the firepower to alter that trend.
Domantas Sabonis Under 5.5 Assists (-105 BetMGM)
Sabonis will not have as many double teams to pass out of Monday night against the Warriors, which will result in a lower number of assists. OddsShopper has this prop going under with a 72% expected win rate. Awesemo has Sabonis finishing with just over a full assist below at 4.4, and the side is favorable with a return of -105. In the five games played in December, Sabonis is averaging five assists per game while never going over seven. OddsShopper has a nice expected ROI at 41% combined with an expected win rate of 72%, as this is the second-best bet when sorting by win percentage.
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Draymond Green Under 8.5 Points (-122 FanDuel)
This is the perfect player prop that combines a narrative and metrics to back it and fits well within Awesemo’s NBA projections. According to OddsShopper, this prop has a 65% expected win rate of hitting while returning an 18% expected ROI. It fits nicely with this being a breakout night for Curry and the under play on the total. Green is arguably the league’s best defender and one of the Warriors best facilitators. It would make perfect sense on a night where everyone is trying to get the ball to Curry that other players would see a dip in points. Green also does not score a ton, averaging just 8 points per game. He leads the team in assists per game with 7.4, so expect that number to increase.
Stephen Curry Under 5.5 3-Pointers (+125 SugarHouse)
This comes down to whether or not Curry will break the record, which would mean seven to pass Ray Allen. Thanks to the sorting tool in OddsShopper, bettors can play this prop two ways. OddsShopper shows this can be played at under 6.5 at -156 or under 5.5 at plus money. The problem with the Warriors over the past five games has been the noticeable effort — to a detriment at times — in forcing the ball to Curry. The offense has stalled when Curry has been unable to knock down a shot, like it did recently in Philadelphia. Golden State is too good defensively for their offensive struggles to be a long-term problem., but it is hard to ignore the cloud of confusion cast over this team so long as the record remains unbroken.
Long Shot Play of the Night – Stephen Curry to record a Double-Double (+500 DraftKings)
If playing off the game script of the Warriors and Pacers playing to an under and Curry struggling to get to six 3-pointers against the Pacers defense, then there is a pathway for this prop to hit. Continue to look at OddsShopper for the best available props, including Awesemo’s projections. Bettors can take two different props with their projections and play something with longer odds. While it has been eight games since Curry’s last double-double, this is a great set of circumstances that may not be around next week. The Pacers will try everything to slow down Curry, including double teams to force early passes. It is a long shot with a 5-to-1 payout, but Curry will have plenty of chances to get buckets for both Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins, the only other Warriors players to average 10-plus points.
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