Portland will pick things up after the break following a couple of big moves that changed the current DNA of the franchise. One of the few big names who remained is Jusuf Nurkic, but the Trail Blazers are without their starting center for another month. Anfernee Simons has picked up mostly all of the slack left from an injured Damian Lillard and now-traded C.J. McCollum. Portland is also without Eric Bledsoe, who has yet to make his Blazers debut with an Achilles injury.
The Warriors are still without some key players up front but are hoping Stephen Curry‘s All-Star magic carries over tonight. Curry will have help, as both Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson have helped provide strong support. The Warriors also get Gary Payton II back in the starting lineup, which should add some more defensive pressure on the Blazers.
Make sure to keep checking OddsShopper, as the status of players can change by the minute. It has everything necessary for NBA betting today. Let’s get into some of the best NBA bets and player props today for the Warriors vs. Trail Blazers.
NBA Props & Betting Picks | Warriors vs. Trail Blazers
Best Warriors vs. Trail Blazers NBA Bets Today & Odds Shopping
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Trail Blazers First Quarter Moneyline: +180 (Caesars)
Portland is going to get run out of the building, just not at the start of the game. If there was ever a quarter to steal from the Warriors tonight, it would be the opening frame. It would make sense that the Warriors are still a little tired from multiple guys being active over the All-Star weekend. Simons has the ability to come out firing with zero conscience, and if he hits a couple, then there will not be enough time in the quarter for the Warriors to respond. Do not forget about Josh Hart in his new surroundings, enough firepower to put up a couple of quick buckets on his own. OddsShopper will find the best return on any play, so getting almost 2-to-1 back on winning the first quarter makes sense paired with the expected game flow.
Stephen Curry Over 6.5 Assists: -110 (Caesars)
One of the best applications of OddsShopper is finding the perfect middle between xWin and xROI. While there is an ability to sort by either, looking at the bets that hit higher grades on both are great places to start. This is Curry’s assist prop, as Awesemo’s projection has him finishing with 8.1 assists. OddsShopper has a strong 70% chance of this prop going over, combined with a 34% xROI on the play. While Curry is averaging 6.4 assists this month, he has gone over this number in four of his last seven games.
He is struggled from three in four of his last five games and has a couple of strong shooters around him to set up shots.
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Anfernee Simons Over 22.5 Points: -118 (FanDuel)
There is not anyone left on this team to get in the way of Simons shooting the ball, from anywhere in the city. Simons should be able to get as many shots up as he wants, or as the Warriors permit. The only concern with playing Simons overs is how the other team sets up their defense. Golden State may just try to take him out of the game to make things even easier, which negates his ability to score, even in volume. Clearly OddsShopper is not concerned, with a 62% chance of this prop hitting. The xROI dips to 15% but is backed by a beefy Awesemo projection of 25.1 points.
Klay Thompson 5+ 3’s: +360 (FanDuel)
In an ideal world this number would be closer to or simply on +400, but it is not too far off to avoid the bet. Someone is going off tonight for the Warriors; it is just a matter of who, not if, and it is going to be Thompson. Curry played his heart out in the All-Star Game, Wiggins was out there and did not get a true rest this past weekend, leaving the one guy who can stay on the outside and just launch. Thompson is averaging 8.3 attempts this month, which is just one attempt too low to lock in a normal shooter at this price — and Thompson is no average shooter. Nine attempts will be plenty for him to knock down five; anything in double-digit attempts is a bonus.
*This bet was at +380 at the time this was being written and dropped to +360 before the paragraph finished.
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