We arrive upon the first Tuesday in February with a six-game assortment in the Association, providing plenty of odds to gauge value amongst as we narrow our NBA betting selections. With some intriguing matchups headlined by Kawhi Leonard squaring off against Kevin Durant and the new big three in Brooklyn, this slate should be a treat in contrast to the typical two- or three-game shilling on Tuesdays.
Shifting our attention to the player props subcategories on OddsShopper, we’ll seek to identify any weaknesses in the betting odds while cross-referencing player stats, rotations and team trends to help lock in some of the best values available in Tuesday’s NBA betting action.
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With Kevin Durant given a blocks player prop line of 1.5 alongside +170 on the over at BetMGM, we’ll look further into what appears to be some solid value in Tuesday’s NBA betting market.
The Nets are currently a historical anomaly, as they lead all teams in two polar-opposite categories, both complimentary and condemning all at once. Since the Nets traded for James Harden, they have the best offensive rating of all time at 122.6 while also spearheading the worst defensive rating ever at 119.9. Yet Durant is averaging 1.4 blocks per game this season (up from career 1.1 average), leading Brooklyn in the category. The next closest member of the Nets was Jarrett Allen before his trade to Cleveland.
Durant has seen his blocks production rise as of late, recently halting a seven-game streak of at least 2 blocks per game. Facing a Clippers team that gives up 3 blocks per game — the fewest in the league this season — presumably adds weight to the plus-money NBA odds at +170. But for what it’s worth, Durant recently registered 2 blocks in each game of a two-game series with the Heat, who are fifth against blocks by power forwards with 0.8 allowed per game.
Accounting for 30% of the Nets blocks per game over the last eight games makes for value too noteworthy to ignore. Coming off a loss to a lowly Wizards team should add some reason to prove something in this potential NBA Finals matchup.
With the departure of Montrezl Harrell, the Clippers managed to fill the void with new-arrival center Serge Ibaka. Seeing as Ibaka is the Clippers’ highest scorer following the obvious Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, Ibaka has a line of 12.5 points, including even-money +100 on the over. Considering Ibaka’s recent scoring production and matchup provided this evening, the value on this player prop remains promising, but we’ll dig deeper to further validate.
While his playing time is down to 25.1 minutes per game from last season’s 27, he’s also averaging just 12.4 points per game this season (from 15.4 last season). Yet Ibaka has lately seen a bit of uptick in production. His scoring jumped to 14.5 points per game the past six games, including two performances of 17 points apiece (both coming with George and Leonard starting). With a 20.5% usage rate this season and 21.5% over the past six games, Ibaka has scored in double digits in each game during that sample. Drawing the Nets in the post only brightens the potential for Ibaka to hit the over.
The Nets have notoriously been abysmal against centers dating back to last season (and beyond), currently ranking 28th and allowing 24.5 points per game to centers. Facing off much of the game with DeAndre Jordan, who’s allowing a 45.3% field-goal rate, the even-money odds on Ibaka to score 13 points or more makes for solid value among NBA betting picks for Tuesday.
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