These two teams have relied upon their superstar point guards all season, and we’ll be treated to a duel between Damian Lillard and Stephen Curry in tonight’s Warriors vs. Trail Blazers game. If you’re looking for an edge on the NBA betting picks markets, here are the key trends and my predictions for tonight’s game.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Warriors vs. Trail Blazers
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Game Info
Golden State Warriors (19-16) at Portland Trail Blazers (19-14)
Date:Â Wednesday, Mar. 3, 2021
Start Time: 10 p.m. EST
Venue:Â Moda Center — Portland, Ore.
Coverage:Â ESPN
These teams have met twice this year. Portland took the first game, but Golden State took the second, and both games played out very differently. Golden State failed to break triple digits in the first matchup, but they proceeded to drop 137 in the second.
That said, those games took place back in early January. The Blazers still had Jusuf Nurkic and C.J. McCollum at the time, so those matchups may not be super predictive of tonight’s results.
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Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Spread Trends and Prediction: Trail Blazers +1.5
The trends don’t point to a ton of value on either team here. Both squads have played well against the spread, as Portland boasts an 18-15 record against the spread to Golden State’s 18-17. Oddly, the Trail Blazers have struggled against the spread at home, as they have a 6-9 record against the spread in Portland. However, the Warriors are even worse when on the road, as they have a 7-10 record against the spread in away games.
To dig a bit deeper, the Warriors last played on Feb. 28, which gives them a one-day rest advantage over the Blazers. They have gone 5-5 against the spread when coming off more rest than their opponents, while the Trail Blazers have gone 5-3 against the spread when playing with a rest disadvantage.
With inconclusive trends, I’ll lean on my NBA betting model to call this one. I use it to calculate a spread for each game using pace and efficiency data, which is then weighed based on recent performance and rest. The model actually favors Portland here, and it predicts that they’ll win by a 1.8-point margin. It comes to that conclusion because of Golden State’s recent offensive inefficiency; they struggled mightily against the Lakers, and they rank third worst in offensive efficiency over the last three games.
I’ll side with my model here and take Portland plus the points.
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Total Trends and Prediction: Under 233.5
The trends are also inconclusive when it comes to the total, although they slightly favor the under. Golden State, despite having one of the NBA’s fastest-paced offenses, has the fifth-lowest over percentage (42.9%). In contrast, Portland’s over percentage (54.5%) is tied for 10th, but it falls a bit to 53.3% when they play at home. Golden State’s over percentage also falls to 41.2% when they play on the road.
My model sides with the trends here. It predicts that this game will have a final total of around 219.5, well below the line that books are selling. Golden State’s recent offensive inefficiency is partially to blame, but Portland’s surprisingly slow pace is as well. The Trail Blazers record the ninth-fewest possessions per game, and they’ve recorded the second-fewest over the last three games.
With both the model and the trends in agreement, I’ll side with the under tonight.
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Warriors vs. Trail Blazers NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
With the trends truly inconclusive, I have sided with my model (and my gut) and decided to take Portland. If you’re in agreement, most sportsbooks have this line at the best juice; BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet and William Hill are all selling the Blazers as 1.5-point underdogs at -110. If you disagree, you can buy the Warriors as 1-point favorites at SugarHouse, or you can add a half-point for much better juice at DraftKings Sportsbook (-108). Late-breaking news can cause these lines to move, so make sure to keep an eye on OddsShopper for the most recent lines.
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
My model and the trends firmly point to an edge on the under tonight. If you agree with my reasoning, you can head over to FanDuel Sportsbook for the highest total, or you can burn a half-point for much better juice (-105) at PointsBet. Should you disagree, head over to BetMGM for the lowest total at the best juice (-110). As always, double-check OddsShopper to confirm that you’re still getting the best deal before you place your bet.
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