After a questionable ejection in last night’s loss to the Phoenix Suns, the Los Angeles Lakers will have to play again tonight, and they’ll have to do so against the Sacramento Kings without LeBron James. They’re even underdogs in the matchup. If you’re looking for an edge on the NBA betting picks market, here’s what you need to know heading into the game.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Lakers vs. Kings
Lakers vs. Kings Game Info
Los Angeles Lakers (24-12) at Sacramento Kings (13-21)
Date:Â Wednesday, March 3, 2021
Start Time: 10 p.m. EST
Venue:Â Golden 1 Center — Sacramento, California
Injuries are the big story of the evening. The Lakers won’t have several players, not just LeBron James — they also won’t have Marc Gasol and Anthony Davis. Alex Caruso is banged up too, as is Kyle Kuzma. Meanwhile, the Kings are relatively healthy. While Tyrese Haliburton and Hassan Whiteside are out, neither are starters. Buddy Hield is also nicked up, but he hasn’t missed time lately, and I suspect that he’ll end up playing.
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Lakers vs. Kings Spread Trends and Prediction: Kings -3.5
We have yet to see the Lakers play without LeBron this season, so I encourage you to take the trends and numbers we have with a grain of salt.
That said, the trends are inconclusive against the spread. The Lakers’ 16-20 record against the spread ranks ninth-worst, while Sacramento’s 14-20 record ranks third-worst. The Kings have gone 3-4 against the spread as home favorites, and the Lakers have gone 1-1 against the spread as road underdogs. Los Angeles has struggled with back-to-backs this season, as they’re only 1-3 against the spread with no rest. Meanwhile, the Kings are 5-5 against the spread with a rest advantage.
So if the trends don’t tell us much, what about my NBA betting model? I use pace and efficiency data, which is weighted for rest and recent performance, to project a score for each game. It predicts that the Lakers will win by a 2.9-point margin, but unfortunately, all the numbers it uses came with LeBron on the court.
I’m not in love with this pick, but the injuries and rest-based trends point to a small edge on Sacramento, so I’ll side with them against the spread.
Lakers vs. Kings Total Trends and Prediction: Under 224
The trends don’t point to much value on the total, either. These teams sit at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of over percentage. The Kings rank second-highest (67.7%), while the Lakers rank second-lowest (36.1%). Sacramento’s over percentage jumps to 73.7% when they play at home, and Los Angeles’ over percentage falls to 17.6% when they play on the road. Notably, 50% of Los Angeles’ games played after no rest have gone over.
What does my model say about the total? It predicts a tally of around 216.5 points, which is well below what sportsbooks are selling. That said, the numbers it uses assume that LeBron is playing.
While we can’t precisely quantify the impact of James’ loss, he has an offensive RAPTOR rating of +5.5 and a defensive RAPTOR rating of +1.2. Only nine players have higher offensive RAPTOR ratings. Of the Lakers’ probable starting five, just Montrezl Harrell and Dennis Schroder have positive offensive RAPTOR ratings.
I suspect that the Lakers’ offensive regression without LeBron will keep the final score below this total, no matter how high-scoring Sacramento’s games have been.
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Lakers vs. Kings NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
Again, I don’t love the read, but I suspect that the Kings will cover against a shorthanded Lakers team. If you agree with me, you can head over to BetMGM, PointsBet or William Hill to get them with the best juice (-110). Should you disagree, FanDuel Sportsbook has the Lakers with near-even juice (-106). However, these lines may move as news breaks before tip-off, and you can keep track of all changes directly through OddsShopper.
Lakers vs. Kings NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
Because of my model and the Lakers’ banged-up roster, I have to favor the under tonight. Should you agree, you can head over to FanDuel Sportsbook for the highest-set total, or you can burn a half-point for much better juice at PointsBet (-105). If you disagree with my lean, head over to BetMGM or William Hill for the lowest total. You can also get moderately better juice (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook by adding a half-point. Make sure to double-check OddsShopper before confirming your bet to make sure that you’re still getting the best deal!
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