The Houston Rockets are back in action after a 20-point thrashing from the Sacramento Kings. They’re still looking to win their first game since Feb. 4, and the sportsbooks have noticed — the Jazz are almost 20-point favorites for tonight’s matchup. If you’re looking for an edge on the NBA betting picks market, here are the key trends and my predictions for tonight’s action.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks and Odds | Rockets vs. Jazz
Rockets vs. Jazz Game Info
Houston Rockets (11-24) at Utah Jazz (27-9)
Date: Friday, Mar. 12, 2021
Start Time: 10 p.m. EST
Venue: Vivint Arena — Salt Lake City, Utah
This game is a tale of two teams. The visiting Rockets are the second-worst squad in the Western Conference, while the home Jazz rank first in the NBA. Tonight is Utah’s first game after the All-Star Break, but it’s Houston’s second in two days.
Injuries are a key story for Houston, as the Rockets were without a handful of key players last night in Danuel House Jr. and John Wall. They both may not suit up tonight. Eric Gordon won’t play, either, and Houston may also have to play without Victor Oladipo. Oh, and Christian Wood remains out, too.
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Rockets vs. Jazz Spread Trends and Prediction: Rockets +18.5
The Jazz are not only the NBA’s winningest team, they’re also the NBA’s best team against the spread. Their 25-11 record against the spread ties them with the Suns for first place. That improves to a jaw-dropping 14-3 when they play in Utah.
In contrast, the Rockets have struggled against the spread. Their 11-24 record is last. However, they have gone 7-8 against the spread when listed as road underdogs, and they are 2-2 against the spread when playing without rest.
The trends favor the Jazz, but my NBA betting model likes the Rockets. It uses efficiency and pace data to make a prediction for each game, and it favors the Jazz by only a 12.1-point margin. That may seem like a lot, but it isn’t compared to the spreads posted at most sportsbooks.
Ultimately, I’ll side with my model and target Houston here. They won’t win this game, but they’re getting almost 20 points. Utah’s average margin of victory is just 8.8 points, and they have beaten opponents by 19-plus just seven times all season. It has been fun to ride against the Rockets, but I can’t keep doing that when they’re getting this much help.
Rockets vs. Jazz Total Trends and Prediction: Under 227.5
The trends and my model may have disagreed about the spread, but they do agree on the total. Houston has the NBA’s second-lowest over percentage (38.2%), and the Jazz’s percentage sits below the league average with theirs (51.4%). Houston just prevented the Kings from going over last night despite their 67.6% over percentage too.
To be fair, some trends do point to value on Houston. They have a much better over percentage when playing on the road (55.0%) and as road underdogs (60.0%), but I suspect that their banged-up roster will depress scoring in this one. The Jazz won’t even need to do that much damage to win either.
My efficiency-based NBA betting model predicts that we’ll see 222.5 total points in this one. That gives us 5 points of edge on the under, and that’s my lean on the totals market.
Rockets vs. Jazz NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
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I favor the Rockets here, mostly because it’s hard not to like a team when they’re getting this many points. If you agree, you can head over to SugarHouse or DraftKings Sportsbook for the best juice (-109). It might also be smart to wait until Houston’s final injury report drops, as they may get even more points closer to tip-off. You can keep up with the most recent spreads by checking OddsShopper.
Rockets vs. Jazz NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
The totals vary by a point across the market, so if you agree with me and like the under, I would head over to FanDuel Sportsbook or PointsBet. Both books have the highest-set total with the best juice (-105). Should you disagree, you can shave a point off the total and take the over at BetMGM — or you can leave that point for the best juice at DraftKings Sportsbook and SugarHouse. Make sure to review OddsShopper before placing your bet to confirm that you’re still getting the best deal.
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