As the COVID-related postponements run rampant in the NBA, four games managed to survive their way to the Saturday slate, which means it’s time to fire up OddsShopper to narrow our NBA betting picks and identify potential weaknesses in the odds laid forth. By cross-referencing player stats and on-court team trends from this season and prior, we’ll look to nail down the best values among NBA player props available.
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NBA Betting Picks: NBA Odds & Player Props | Jan. 16
NBA Pick: F Jerami Grant, OVER 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+110, SugarHouse & DraftKings Sportsbook)
Among the NBA betting odds available for this sparse Saturday slate, one of the more interesting prop bets to be had is with the three-pointers made by Pistons small forward Jerami Grant. Getting a boost just above even-money odds at +110 for three or more three-pointers made seems significantly low enough to snare my attention.
Looking at this Detroit unit still trying to develop an identity among an array of unknown and storied pieces, Grant leads the Pistons by far in three-pointers attempted with 78 (next in line is Svi Mykhailiuk with 65 attempts) as well as three-pointers made with 30. Grant is averaging three long-balls made per game this season, with three made in each of his past three games, adding promising trend on par with the wager at hand. With three-pointers comprising 33.3% of Grant’s scoring this season, it’s only fitting the theme of “threes” is statically in play with this player prop.
Facing a Miami Heat team ranking 21st in the league against opponent three-pointers allowed with 37.6%, the team-high volume from behind the arc from Grant is that much more promising in consideration to this player prop among our NBA betting picks. Nothing to hang all hats on, but as an added incentive, the Heat rank last in three-pointers allowed to small forward with 3.9 per game surrendered to the position. Likely drawing the defense of Duncan Robinson much of the game, Grant should be able to achieve the necessary total with Robinson allowing 35.2% from three-point range to his opponents defended.
Take the plus-money on this low total of three needed from three-point land for Jerami Grant, as it’s some of the better NBA betting odds available on today’s short slate.
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NBA Pick: F Ben Simmons, OVER 8.5 Rebounds (+118, SugarHouse & DraftKings Sportsbook)
With news of center Joel Embiid being out due to right knee soreness, veteran Dwight Howard will assume duties in the post for the Philadelphia 76ers as they head to FedExForum to take on the struggling Memphis Grizzlies. However it’s hybrid-guard Ben Simmons who’s likely to be pulling down the boards for Philly in Embiid’s absence, which makes the rebound player prop for Simmons at 8.5 with +118 on the over some very endicing NBA odds to invest in.
Seeing as that Simmons is the second-highest rebounder for Philadelphia behind Embiid, the likelihood for Simmons to pay off on the over appears favorable, as he’s cleaning up nine boards per game this season as well. Although Howard is averaging seven rebounds per game also, Simmons running like more of a point-forward helps his cause as the style has served him well averaging 8.3 rebounds per game into the fourth year of his career. With Embiid off the court, Simmons has averaged 10.53 rebounds per 48 minutes over the past two seasons, which is value-added incentive to the NBA odds for the taking.
Although the minutes for Simmons this season are slightly lower than previous years, averaging 32.7 minutes per game in 2021, I’m not at all concerned; especially sans Embiid. Squaring off against a Memphis team who ranks 18th in opponent rebounds, allowing 45.8 boards per game to opponents, Simmons remains in a great place to bring home plus-money value among our NBA betting picks. Snag the +118 on Ben Simmons’ rebounding prop at 8.5 while you can.
