It’s already Thursday, and just before we head into the weekend we’ve got a five-game on which NBA slate to take our swipes . In a time where game postponements are a near-daily expectation, we’re in the clear thus far and looks like clear sailing ahead as we prepare to narrow down our NBA betting picks. Setting out to OddsShopper in order to comb through the NBA odds, we’ll cross-reference player stats and on-court team trends from this season and prior while seeking to identify the best values among NBA odds in the betting lines on the day.
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NBA Betting Picks: NBA Odds & Player Props | Jan. 14
NBA Pick: G Kyle Lowry, OVER 5.5 Rebounds
+115, SugarHouse & DraftKings Sportsbook
The Raptors welcome the Hornets to Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla., serving as the Toronto temporary homecourt amidst the pandemic. Charlotte (on the second leg of back-to-back games) stands as .500 as it gets, currently representing a 6-6 record and 3-3 home/away record, while 2-8 Toronto is clearly not as fortunate. Although neither team particularly excels in the rebounding category, looking over at OddsShopper we find Raptors guard Kyle Lowry with a rebound player prop line of 5.5 and the over at +115. While the rebound total to surpass seems a bit low to be attached to plus-money betting odds, diving deeper shines light on the value bestowed in this feasible line for Lowry.
Lowry, who averages 4.3 rebound per game for his career, is currently averaging six rebounds per game this season and is tied with O.G. Anunoby for third most on the team. However, Lowry is naturally just behind the Raptors’ post rotations in pulling down the boards, with any two of Pascal Siakam, Chris Boucher and Alex Len sharing the court at once with Lowry (Aron Baynes has essentially been phased out recently). Following the first two games this season, Lowry has averaged 7.5 rebounds per game and three straight games with nine rebounds.
They are facing a Charlotte team that ranks 15th in the NBA in rebounding, even allowing 6.5 rebounds per game to opposing point guards (tied 18th in NBA). Since one of Charlotte’s two leading rebounders is their backup rookie guard LaMelo Ball (tied with Bismack Biyombo at seven rebounds per game), the chances look good for Lowry in his 36.4 minutes per game. Considering Lowry is not just averaging well above this total of 5.5 but nearly doubling the total over his recent three-game average, getting plus-money on this rebound total is an inviting wager for Thursday’s NBA betting picks.
NBA Pick: G Malcolm Brogdon, OVER 7.5 Assists
The Pacers come into Thursday’s matchup a day removed from dealing guard Victor Oladipo to the Rockets in exchange for Caris LeVert (whom they’ll be without tonight). Seeing as that they’ll be short a member of their starting lineup, it’s presumable that it will be the shared show of Malcolm Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner on Thursday in Portland taking on the Trail Blazers. Provided the significant plus-money betting odds at +125 for eight assists, the interest is heightened here.
Averaging exactly 7.5 assists per game, Brogdon remains the Pacers assist leader as their starting floor general. As added incentive, in his past three games Brogdon has managed eight or more assists in tandem with a 33.8% assist rate. Although he averages just 4.5 assists per game for his career, Brogdon is getting the ball to teammates more than he ever has, and this is a promising chance to continue that.
While Portland allows just 7.3 assists per game to opposing point guards, the quality of opponent for the Trail Blazers has been on the softer side recently, and Brogdon should be involved heavily in setting up the Pacers offensive attack from the get-go. While also averaging more playing time than any point in his career, look for Brogdon to log a lot of minutes tonight as he orchestrates the Pacers from start to finish.
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