After yesterday’s two-game slate, the NBA is back in earnest tonight with a whopping 11 games. In one of two marquee matchups on the West Coast, the Golden State Warriors will take on the Los Angeles Clippers tonight on TNT. If you’re looking for an edge on the NBA betting picks market, here are the key trends and my predictions.
Today’s NBA Betting Picks and Odds | Warriors vs. Clippers
Warriors vs. Clippers Game Info
Golden State Warriors (19-18) at Los Angeles Clippers (24-14)
Date: Thursday, Mar. 11, 2021
Start Time: 10 p.m. EST
Venue: STAPLES Center — Los Angeles, Calif.
Coverage: TNT
The Warriors staggered into the All-Star Break on a three-game slump. They have fallen to a trio of divisional rivals in the Lakers, Trail Blazers and Suns, and they now find themselves 10th in the Western Conference. Likewise, the Clippers have also dropped their last three, although all their losses came against the Eastern Conference. Both squads will look to turn things around tonight.
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Warriors vs. Clippers Spread Trends and Prediction: Warriors +7
These teams haven’t been great against the spread, especially of late. The Clippers are barely above the league average with a 20-18 record against the spread, while the Warriors sit a few spots below with their 18-19 record against the spread. The home and away trends point to slight value on the Clippers, as they’ve gone 8-8 against the spread as home favorites, but the Warriors have gone just 4-8 against the spread as road underdogs.
The good news for Golden State is that they have been decent on equal rest. Their 11-9 record against the spread in such situations is a healthy margin better than Los Angeles’ 10-11 record against the spread too.
With the trends mixed, let’s look at my NBA betting model. I use a combination of pace and efficiency data, which I then weigh for rest and recent performance to generate a spread for each game. Since the model favors the Clippers by a 5.6-point margin tonight, that points to value on Golden State against the posted spreads.
I’ll side with my model tonight and take the Warriors plus the points.
Warriors vs. Clippers Total Trends and Prediction: Under 230.5
The trends are also yucky when it comes to the total. The Clippers have the NBA’s fifth-highest over percentage (59.5%), but the Warriors have the NBA’s fourth-lowest (40.5%). However, Los Angeles’ over percentage ticks up to 60% when they play as home favorites, and Golden State’s moves up a bit to 41.7% when they play as road underdogs.
Oddly, the trends flip entirely when these teams play with equal rest. The Warriors have an over percentage of 55.0% in such situations compared to 47.6% for the Clippers.
Again, the mixed trends mean that I’ll likely defer to my model. It projects this one for 222.7 points, in part due to the Clippers’ second-slowest average pace, which points to an edge on the under.
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Warriors vs. Clippers NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
I’m playing the Warriors tonight, and if you agree, you can buy them as 7-point underdogs at most sportsbooks. SugarHouse, BetMGM, PointsBet, DraftKings Sportsbook and William Hill all have that line with the same juice (-110). You could also burn a half-point for some better value at FanDuel Sportsbook (-106), but I’d prefer the extra breathing room. Should you disagree with me, you can get the Clippers as 6.5-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook. Make sure to can keep track of line movement as tip-off approaches directly through OddsShopper.
Warriors vs. Clippers NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
I like the under tonight, and if you agree with my reasoning, you can get the highest total at BetMGM. You can also burn a half-point for the best juice (-105) at PointsBet. Should you disagree, you can find the lowest total with the best juice at William Hill (-110). As always, double-check OddsShopper before placing your bet to confirm that you’re still getting the best deal.
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