🎲 Grizzlies vs. Suns: NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction | Tonight 3/15

Tonight, the Suns and Grizzlies will play each other for the second time this season, and these are two squads headed in different directions. The Suns have gone an impressive 8-2 over their last 10 outings, moving them up to second in the Western Conference. In contrast, the Grizzlies have gone 4-6 through that span, and they now sit in 10th place. If you’re looking for an edge on the NBA betting market, here are the key trends and my predictions for tonight’s action.

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Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks and Odds| Grizzlies vs. Suns

Grizzlies vs. Suns Game Info

Memphis Grizzlies (17-18) at Phoenix Suns (25-12)
Date: Monday, Mar. 15, 2021
Start Time: 10 p.m. EST
Venue: Phoenix Suns Arena, Phoenix, Ariz.

The Suns have the momentum heading into this one, although the Grizzlies did get the better of them back in January. The Suns fell by a 4-point margin back then, although they won their second battle with the Grizzlies by 31. The game was basically over after the first half. That game was played in Memphis too, so the Grizzlies will be at even more of a disadvantage in this spot.

[MARCHMADNESS]

Grizzlies vs. Suns Spread Trends and Prediction: Suns -7

The trends favor the Suns heavily. At 25-12 against the spread, they lead the NBA against the spread, and they cover in more than two-thirds of their games. Memphis isn’t far behind, as their 20-15 record against the spread ranks fourth, but there is a 10-percentage-point gap in the two teams’ cover percentages.

Things look worse for Memphis when we dig a bit deeper. They are a dismal 2-3 against the spread when playing on no rest, which they’ll do tonight after collapsing against the Thunder in the fourth quarter yesterday. In contrast, the Suns are 13-8 against the spread when playing on one day of rest.

For my model, I use a combination of pace and efficiency data, which is then weighted for rest and recent form to generate a prediction for each game. It favors the Suns by a 4.5-point margin, which points to value on the Grizzlies as 7-point underdogs.

Ultimately, I have to disregard my model and side with the trends tonight. The Suns have been a reliable option all season, and it’s hard to trust the Grizzlies a night after they fell to a depleted Oklahoma City squad.

Grizzlies vs. Suns Total Trends and Prediction: Over 227

The trends don’t point to immediate value on the total. Phoenix’s over percentage (51.3%) ranks above the league average, but Memphis’s (48.6%) ranks just below.

That said, a deeper dive shows that the over has some value. Memphis’ over percentage jumps to 60% when they play on the road and to 70% when they play as road underdogs. It rises to 80% when they play without rest, which they’ve done five times this season. Interestingly, Phoenix’s over percentage rises when they play at home (57.9%) and when they’re playing after one day off (52.4%).

So with the trends on the over, my model predicts a final tally of 220.5 points, which is well below where the total has been set. That said, I think the model underestimates just how bad Memphis’s defense has been in the second half of back-to-backs. Sure, these teams haven’t surpassed this total in their two meetings this season, but I suspect that they’ll do so tonight.


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Grizzlies vs. Suns NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping

Isaiah Sirois uses Awesemo's OddsShopper tool to identify the best NBA betting picks and odds for tonight's game between the Grizzlies and Suns.

I favor the Suns against the spread tonight, and fortunately, OddsShopper shows us that you won’t need to do much shopping around. All our featured sportsbooks, including the three that are available in Tennessee, have the Suns as 7-point favorites. That may change as tip-off approaches, so make sure to double-check the site before placing your bet to confirm that you’re still getting the best deal.

Grizzlies vs. Suns NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping

Isaiah Sirois uses Awesemo's OddsShopper tool to identify the best NBA betting picks and odds for tonight's game between the Grizzlies and Suns.

The trends point to an edge on the over, and you can find the lowest-set total with the best juice at either FanDuel Sportsbook or William Hill. Should you disagree and favor the under, you can find the highest-set total at BetMGM, or you can burn a half-point and head over to PointsBet for a better line (-105). As always, you can follow all line movement directly on OddsShopper.


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Author
Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.

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