The Cleveland Cavaliers head to Houston to take on the Rockets this evening. They’ll play each other for the second time in the past week; the Cavaliers won the first game by a 16-point margin last Wednesday. The sportsbooks currently expect the Rockets to get their first win since Feb. 4, the last game that Christian Wood started before he got hurt. If you’re looking for an edge on the NBA betting picks markets, here’s what you should know about this matchup.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Cavaliers vs. Rockets
Cavaliers vs. Rockets Game Info
Cleveland Cavaliers (13-21) at Houston Rockets (11-21)
Date: Monday, Mar. 1, 2021
Start Time: 9 p.m. EST
Venue: Toyota Center — Houston, Texas
The Cavaliers enter this one on a three-game winning streak. They have taken down the 76ers, Rockets and Hawks in recent days, and they have begun to adjust to life without Andre Drummond. His replacement at center, Jarrett Allen, has posted a double-double in all three of those games, averaging 17.7 points and 14 rebounds per game through that span. It’ll be a great night to target his rebounding props — the Rockets are allowing the most rebounds per game on the year.
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Cavaliers vs. Rockets Spread Trends and Prediction
These are the NBA’s two worst teams against the spread. The Cavaliers’ 13-21 record against the spread is just slightly better than Houston’s 11-21, and the trends don’t point to a whole lot of value. The Rockets are 2-4 against the spread as home favorites, while the Cavaliers are 4-11 as road underdogs. That said, Cleveland has gone 6-6 against the spread after a win, and the Rockets are just 5-15 against the spread after a loss.
Although the trends don’t point to much value, my NBA betting model does. Using pace and efficiency data (weighted for rest and recent play), it predicts that the Cavaliers will grab a 3.1-point win over the Rockets, which gives us quite a bit of edge against the current spreads.
Ultimately I agree with my model here. I would be surprised if the Rockets got their first win without Wood tonight, especially against a team that looked so dominant against them less than a week ago. Houston just doesn’t have the size to contain Allen.
Cavaliers vs. Rockets Total Trends and Prediction
The trends conclusively point value on the under. The Rockets have the third-lowest over percentage (38.7%) and the Cavaliers have the fifth lowest (42.4%), both of which suggest that we’ll see a low-scoring game. It helps that Houston’s offense has averaged only 97 points per game over their last three outings, through which they rank dead last in offensive efficiency.
That said, my betting model predicts a final total of 220.1, which is a nose above the posted totals. That’s partly due to Houston’s relatively fast pace of play, but I suspect that my model is underestimating how poorly the Rockets play without a true center.
I’ll side with the trends here and predict that this game stays under.
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Cavaliers vs. Rockets NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
I’m siding with the Cavaliers tonight, and if you agree with my model, you can head over to SugarHouse or DraftKings Sportsbook to get the best juice (-109). Should you disagree with me and favor the Rockets, most sportsbooks have the same juice on this line (-110), and you can lock that play in at BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet or William Hill. These lines may move as tip-off approaches, so make sure to double-check OddsShopper to confirm that you’re getting the best deal.
Cavaliers vs. Rockets NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
I’m siding with the trends over my model here by playing the under. Should you agree with my reasoning, head over to PointsBet for the highest total at the best juice (-105). If you disagree with me — or you trust my model more than my analysis — you can head over to BetMGM for the lowest total, or you can add a half point and get better juice (-106) through FanDuel Sportsbook. As always, you can follow all line movement directly through OddsShopper.
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