After last night’s surprisingly low-scoring battle with the Warriors, the Portland Trail Blazers are back at it again tonight and will face the Sacramento Kings. Damian Lillard may have willed Portland to a late-game comeback with some clutch three-pointers, but he ended up scoring the same number of points as teammate Carmelo Anthony: 22. We’re bound to see the two of them go for even more tonight against a defense as bad as Sacramento’s. Here’s a rundown of tonight’s action to help you find an edge on the NBA betting picks market.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Kings vs. Trail Blazers
Kings vs. Trail Blazers Game Info
Sacramento Kings (14-21) at Portland Trail Blazers (20-14)
Date: Thursday, Mar. 4, 2021
Start Time: 10 p.m. EST
Venue:Â Moda Center — Portland, Ore.
These teams are both on the wrong end of back-to-back sets. I already mentioned that Portland beat the Warriors last night, but the Kings also took down the LeBron-less Lakers. They won that game by just three points, a half-point less than the spread they needed to cover, and they let Los Angeles score 120 without their best offensive weapon. As far as injuries go, the Blazers still haven’t gotten Jusuf Nurkic or C.J. McCollum back, and the Kings won’t have Tyrese Haliburton.
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The basic trends point to value on Portland. They have gone 19-15 against the spread this season, good for the sixth-best record, while the Kings’ 14-21 record against the spread puts them in 29th.
However, a deeper dive does suggest that the Kings could have value, too. Portland is just 5-7 against the spread when favored at home, and the Kings have gone 7-4 against the spread when playing as road underdogs.
My NBA betting model also points to value on Sacramento. I use weighted pace and efficiency data to produce a prediction for each game, and the model favors Portland by just a 0.9-point margin. That’s well below where the sportsbooks have this spread.
The Kings may have struggled to cover this year, but since my model and the home/away trends favor them, I’m comfortable taking them as underdogs tonight.
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Kings vs. Trail Blazers Total Trends and Prediction: Under 237.5
The trends are surprisingly inconclusive for tonight’s total. The basic ones point to value on the over, as Sacramento boasts the NBA’s second-highest over percentage (68.6%), and Portland’s 13th-highest over percentage (52.9%) isn’t far behind. However, Sacramento’s over percentage plummets to 28.6% when they’re playing with no rest.
My model also points to value on the under. It predicts that these teams will tally just 218 points, which is far below the total posted at most books. It comes to that conclusion because of Portland’s surprisingly slow pace — the Trail Blazers average the eighth-fewest possessions per game (102), and last night’s matchup with the Warriors was pretty slow, as both teams earned 99 possessions. Sacramento may play at the 11th-fastest pace, but they have been slowed down over their last three.
With the trends and model on the same side, I’m playing the under in this one.
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Kings vs. Trail Blazers NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
I like the Kings plus the points for the reasons mentioned above. If you agree, you can head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or SugarHouse to get the best juice (-109). Should you disagree, BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet and William Hill are all offering the best juice in Portland (-110). These lines may move as tip-off approaches, so make sure to keep an eye on OddsShopper to make sure that you get the best deal.
Kings vs. Trail Blazers NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
My model really loves the under tonight, and with Sacramento’s back-to-backs consistently staying under, I favor it as well. Should you agree, BetMGM has the highest posted total. You can also burn a half-point and head over to DraftKings Sportsbook for slightly better juice (-108). If you disagree and favor the over, FanDuel Sportsbook and William Hill have the lowest-set totals. You can also add a full point for better juice at SugarHouse (-108), but that deal probably isn’t worth it. You can also see the most recent lines over at OddsShopper.
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