We’ve got another marquee Western Conference battle tonight with the Los Angeles Lakers heading up to San Francisco to take on the Warriors. Golden State has underwhelmed recently, as they’re just 4-6 over their last 10 outings. The Lakers haven’t been great recently, either, as they have also gone 4-6 through that stretch, but they can at least blame that on Dennis Schroder’s four-game absence. These teams will want to right the ship tonight, and here are the key trends and my predictions to help you find an edge on the NBA betting market.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Lakers vs. Warriors
Lakers vs. Warriors Game Info
Los Angeles Lakers (25-13) at Golden State Warriors (20-19)
Date: Monday, Mar. 15, 2021
Start Time: 10:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Chase Center — San Francisco
Coverage: ESPN
The Warriors are coming into this one after a big win over the division-leading Utah Jazz, but I suspect they’ll come back down to Earth tonight. Three of their starters, Andrew Wiggins, Stephen Curry, and Draymond Green, all had to play 35-plus minutes in the win, which may make life difficult for the Warriors. In contrast, the Lakers haven’t played since last Friday.
[MARCHMADNESS]
Lakers vs. Warriors Spread Trends and Prediction: Lakers -1.5
The Los Angeles Lakers have been a frustrating team to target against the spread. They sit at just 18-20 ATS, one game behind the Warriors, who have gone 19-20 ATS. Fortunately, most of their struggles have come at home, and they’re on the road tonight. The Lakers are an impressive 10-8 ATS on the road, good for seventh-best in the NBA.
Although the Warriors have also been good at home, their lack of rest concerns me. They are an impressive 12-7 ATS in the Chase Center, but they’ve only gone 3-4 ATS without rest, and they’re just 2-4 ATS with a rest disadvantage. In contrast, the Lakers are 3-1 ATS with two to three days off, and they’re 4-2 ATS with the rest advantage.
I use an NBA betting model to make a prediction for each game, and it favors the Lakers by a 2.8-point margin. It comes to that conclusion partly because of Golden State’s lackluster offense, as they rank tenth-worst in offensive efficiency. That won’t do against Los Angeles, as they rank first in defensive efficiency.
With the trends and my model on the same side, I’ll side with the Lakers as modest 1.5-point favorites. It helps that they throttled the Warriors by a 31-point margin when these teams last met on Feb. 28.
Lakers vs. Warriors Total Trends and Prediction: Under 224.5
The trends point to a lot of value on the under tonight. The Lakers have the NBA’s lowest over percentage (36.8%), and the Warriors have the sixth-lowest (43.6%). The Lakers’ over percentage falls to a league-low 22.2% when they play on the road, although the Warriors’ number rises slightly to 47.4% when they play at home.
Los Angeles’ road defense has been incredible this season, and it’s very hard to side against it.
My NBA betting model agrees. It predicts that these teams will combine for only 216.9 points, well below this total. I’ll bet on Los Angeles’ defense and take the under.
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Lakers vs. Warriors NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
If you agree with the trends and my model, you can get the best deal on the Lakers as 1.5-point favorites at BetMGM, PointsBet or William Hill. You can also add a half-point for a slightly better line at FanDuel Sportsbook (-108). Should you disagree, you can head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to buy the Warriors as 2-point underdogs, or you can forego that advantage for better juice at every book (-110). Make sure to double-check OddsShopper to confirm that you’re still getting the best bet.
Lakers vs. Warriors NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
I like Los Angeles’ road defense and expect this game to stay under the total tonight. Should you agree, you can find the total with the best juice at PointsBet (-105). Should you disagree, you can find the best deal on the over at BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook or Willaim Hill. Again, you can follow all line movement directly through OddsShopper.
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