The Charlotte Hornets will play the first game of a back-to-back set out West tonight, and they’ll take on the Denver Nuggets before they head to Los Angeles to play the Lakers. It’s a tough test for them, and if they’re going to get a win, they’ll need a big showing from LaMelo Ball. Here are the key trends and my predictions for tonight’s matchup to help you find an edge on the NBA betting picks market.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Hornets vs. Nuggets
Hornets vs. Nuggets Game Info
Charlotte Hornets (20-18) at Denver Nuggets (23-16)
Date: Wednesday, Mar. 17, 2021
Start Time: 9 p.m. EST
Venue: Ball Arena — Denver, Colo.
The fact that both these teams are fifth in their respective conferences says a lot about the disparity between them. Charlotte is on a four-game winning streak that has carried them over .500, but the Nuggets have three more wins and have been over .500 for most of the year.
Both teams enter this one relatively healthy. Charlotte has no one listed on the injury report, and of the three players listed on Denver’s, only Gary Harris is a starter. He remains out with a thigh injury that has kept him out since Feb. 17.
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Hornets vs. Nuggets Spread Trends and Prediction: Hornets +6.5
I expect this to be a very high-scoring game, and the Hornets should keep it within a 6.5-point margin. The trends agree; Charlotte ranks fifth against the spread with a 21-16-1 record, while Denver is 10th-worst with their 18-21 record against the spread.
The Nuggets have struggled when favored at home, as their 5-8 record against the spread in such situations suggests. The Hornets have fared a bit better as road underdogs, and they have an 8-7 record against the spread in such situations. They have gone 10-8 against the spread on the road generally.
Charlotte has also looked great against opponents on equal rest. They have gone 14-8 against the spread in such situations, the NBA’s third-best rate, while Denver has gone just 9-10 against the spread in such situations.
I use an NBA betting model that uses pace and efficiency data to make a prediction for each game, and it favors Denver by only a 3.3-point margin. That gives us more than 3 points of edge on Charlotte, so they’re my pick against the spread for tonight.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”03/17/2021″ team=”nuggets”]
Hornets vs. Nuggets Total Trends and Prediction: Over 228.5
If you follow me on Twitter, you’d know that this over is my lock of the night. I like it for several reasons, but mostly because of two trends. First, the Hornets have an over percentage of 80% when they play as road underdogs. That’s based on a 15-game sample size, and it’s the highest such rate among teams that have played three or more games in that situation. Second, the Nuggets have an over percentage of 73.7% when they play opponents on equal rest. That leads the NBA.
These teams have high over percentages in general too, as Denver is fourth (61.5%) and Charlotte is 12th (54%).
It’s worth noting that this total is just 0.4 points higher than what these teams average on a per-game basis (228.1), so we don’t need that exceptional of a showing for them to sail over the total.
However, my NBA betting model disagrees with my lean. It projects this game for just 216.3 points because Denver plays at a surprisingly slow pace — the NBA’s sixth lowest — despite their high over percentage. The trends are just too juicy to ignore tonight, and I’m playing the over anyway.
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Hornets vs. Nuggets NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
If you agree with my lean and favor the Hornets, you don’t have to do much odds shopping at the moment. You can get them as 6.5-point favorites across the market with the same juice (-110). Likewise, if you disagree and favor the Nuggets, you’ll get the same deal on them as 6.5-point favorites everywhere else. That may change as tip-off approaches, so make sure to double-check OddsShopper to confirm that you’re getting the best deal.
Hornets vs. Nuggets NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
We have some disagreement in the market on the total. I favor the over this evening, and you can find the lowest-set total with the best juice at FanDuel Sportsbook (-108). Should you disagree with me and favor the under, you can find the highest-set total at SugarHouse or DraftKings Sportsbook. You can also burn a half-point for a better deal at BetMGM or PointsBet (-105). As always, you can follow all line movement over at OddsShopper.
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