LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers will return to the court tonight for a matchup against the Indiana Pacers. It’ll be both teams’ first game back following the All-Star Break. The Pacers will have to play again tomorrow night, too, but the Lakers don’t have another game scheduled until next Monday. Here are the key trends and my predictions to help you find an edge on the NBA betting picks markets.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks and Odds | Pacers vs. Lakers
Pacers vs. Lakers Game Info
Indiana Pacers (16-19) at Los Angeles Lakers (24-13)
Date: Friday, Mar. 12, 2021
Start Time: 10:30 p.m. EST
Venue: STAPLES Center — Los Angeles, Calif.
Coverage: NBATV
These two teams are trending in the wrong direction. The Pacers have fallen to 10th in the Eastern Conference after going 4-6 over their last 10, while the Lakers have lost a spot to the Suns and are just 3-7 through that span. The Lakers have a bit of breathing room, but they won’t have it for long if they can’t return to their winning ways.
The Latest Sports Betting Content from Stokastic Odds
- BetMGM North Carolina Pre-Registration: $200 in Bonus Bets Awaiting You When Sports Betting Launches
- Bet365 North Carolina Pre-Registration: Get $100 in Bonus Bets Before March 11
- DraftKings North Carolina Pre-Registration: Up to $300 in Bonus Bets for NC Launch on March 11!
- FanDuel North Carolina Pre-Registration: Grab $300 in Bonus Bets Between Now and March 11!
- Bet365 Louisiana Bonus Code: Bet $1, Get $365 in Bonus Bets!
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Pacers vs. Lakers Spread Trends and Prediction: Pacers +4.5
These are two of the NBA’s worst teams against the spread. The Lakers are ninth worst with their 17-20 record against the spread, while the Pacers rank second-worst at 14-21 against the spread. The Lakers have been worse at home, as they have gone 7-12 against the spread in the STAPLES Center. In contrast, the Pacers have been better on the road, as they boast an 8-9 record against the spread outside of Indiana. However, that falls back to 3-5 against the spread when they’re listed as road underdogs.
The trends don’t point to any value for tonight’s matchup. What little value the Lakers’ struggles in Los Angeles points to on Indiana get wiped away by the Pacers’ own struggles.
So without much to work with, let’s look at what my NBA betting model predicts will happen tonight. The model calculates a spread for each game using pace and efficiency data, which is weighted for rest and recent performance, and it favors the Lakers by a 4.1-point margin. That’s a hair below where the books have this spread.
I’ll defer to my model and take the 0.4 points of edge on Indiana tonight, but I’m not super confident. Still, given how poorly the Lakers were playing heading into the All-Star Break, it’s hard to take them as favorites.
Pacers vs. Lakers Total Trends and Prediction: Over 216.5
The trends are somewhat split on tonight’s total. The Pacers have the NBA’s seventh-highest over percentage (58.8%), but the Lakers have the lowest (37.8%).
A deeper dive reveals value on the over. Los Angeles’ over percentage jumps to 52.6% when they play at home, and Indiana’s increases to 68.8% when they play on the road. They have only played eight games as road underdogs, but six of those matchups went over.
With the trends on the over, my model predicts that these teams will combine for 218.4 points, a nose above where books currently have this total. It expects that result because both these teams play at above-average paces.
Click on the IMAGE BELOW to start Odds Shopping!
Pacers vs. Lakers NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
If you agree with my lean and favor the Pacers, you can find the best juice on them as 4.5-point underdogs at FanDuel Sportsbook (-108), although SugarHouse and DraftKings Sportsbook aren’t far behind (-109). Should you disagree with me and like the Lakers, you can get the best juice on them at BetMGM, PointsBet or William Hill. Make sure to look at OddsShopper before placing your bet to confirm that you’re still getting the best deal!
Pacers vs. Lakers NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
I like the over tonight, and you can get the lowest-set total with the best juice at BetMGM (-110). Should you disagree with my read, you can find the highest-set total with the best juice at PointsBet (-105). These totals may move as tip-off approaches, and you can follow all such movement at OddsShopper.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Check out the AwesemoOdds home page for more sports betting content, including more picks and predictions.
