The New Orleans Pelicans will take on the Portland Trail Blazers for the second game of their two-part series tonight. Damian Lillard won Portland the first game after a wild late-game comeback, so the Pelicans will be looking for a measure of revenge tonight. If you’re looking for an edge on the game’s NBA betting picks market, here are the key trends and my prediction.
NBA Betting Picks and Odds | Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Game Info
New Orleans Pelicans (17-23) at Portland Trail Blazers (23-16)
Date: Thursday, Mar. 18, 2021
Start Time: 10 p.m. EST
Venue: Moda Center — Portland, Ore.
These teams enter tonight’s game in relatively good health. The Trail Blazers got C.J. McCollum back for their last game, and they can start to ease him off the minutes restriction tonight. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are at almost full strength — they’ll remain without J.J. Redick, but the rotational shooting guard isn’t an integral part of this offense.
[MARCHMADNESS]
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Spread Trends and Prediction: Pelicans +1.5
The Pelicans should have won the first game of this series, and they did end up covering as underdogs. However, the big-picture trends don’t love them, as New Orleans’ 18-22 record against the spread ranks sixth worst. In contrast, the Blazers are 16th with their 19-20 record against the spread.
Digging deeper, a few more specific trends point to value on the Pelicans. Their 11-13 record against the spread on equal rest significantly outranks Portland’s 7-13 record against the spread in such situations. Also, Portland has gone just 7-12 against the spread at home. At 8-10 against the spread on the road, New Orleans is a little bit better.
My NBA betting model also points to value on the Pelicans. It uses pace and efficiency data to predict a final score for each game. The model favors the Pelicans by a 3.1-point margin, giving more than 4 points of edge here for two main reasons: First, the Pelicans rank first in offensive efficiency over their last three outings. Second, the Trail Blazers are third worst in defensive efficiency over that same stretch.
These teams have met twice before, and the Trail Blazers eked out a 2-point win on Feb. 17 and a 1-point win on March 16. Look for New Orleans to at least keep this one within a point tonight.
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Total Trends and Prediction: Over 238.5
These teams have played twice. They combined for 250 points on Feb. 17 and 249 points on March 16, yet this total is more than 10 points under both of those numbers.
Aside from the head-to-head data, the trends also point to value here. The Pelicans have the NBA’s highest over percentage (72.5%), and the Trail Blazers aren’t far behind in ninth (56.4%). Portland’s over percentage ticks up to 57.9% when they play at home too. And when these teams have played on equal rest, 70.8% of New Orleans’ games went over, while 70% of Portland’s did the same.
My NBA betting model disagrees with the trends, as it projects these teams to combine for just 225.9 points. It comes to that conclusion because of their surprisingly slow pace of play, as both teams rank below the league average.
However, I’ll ignore my model. The trends and head-to-head stats are just too convincing, and I’ll play the over tonight.
The Latest Sports Betting Content from Stokastic Odds
- BetMGM North Carolina Pre-Registration: $200 in Bonus Bets Awaiting You When Sports Betting Launches
- Bet365 North Carolina Pre-Registration: Get $100 in Bonus Bets Before March 11
- DraftKings North Carolina Pre-Registration: Up to $300 in Bonus Bets for NC Launch on March 11!
- FanDuel North Carolina Pre-Registration: Grab $300 in Bonus Bets Between Now and March 11!
- Bet365 Louisiana Bonus Code: Bet $1, Get $365 in Bonus Bets!
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Click on the IMAGE BELOW to start Odds Shopping!
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
I favor the Pelicans tonight, and you can buy them as 1.5-point underdogs with the best juice (-110) at BetMGM. Should you disagree with my lean, you can buy the Blazers as 1-point favorites at most books, but SugarHouse and DraftKings have the best line (-109). That may change as tip-off approaches, so make sure to look at OddsShopper to before placing your bet to confirm that you’re getting the best deal.
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
After the two games we’ve seen these teams play, I favor the over, and you can find the lowest-set total at BetMGM. You can also add a half point for better juice at FanDuel Sportsbook (-110). Should you disagree with my read and favor the under, you can find the lowest total with the best juice at PointsBet (-105). You can keep track of all line movement tonight directly through OddsShopper.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Check out the AwesemoOdds home page for more sports betting content, including more picks and predictions.
