With the All-Star Break now in the rear-view mirror, the NBA is roaring into the second half of the season. In tonight’s matchup, the Phoenix Suns will return to the court to battle the Portland Trail Blazers. Both teams are coming into this one with some momentum- Portland has won its last three, Phoenix its last four. If you’re looking for an edge on the NBA betting market, here are the key trends and my predictions for tonight’s matchup:
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Suns vs. Trail Blazers
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Game Info
Phoenix Suns (24-11) at Portland Trail Blazers (21-14)
Date:Â Thursday, Mar. 11, 2021
Start Time: 10 p.m. EST
Venue: Moda Center — Portland, OR
With both teams on winning streaks, it’s not a question of momentum heading into tonight’s matchup. Instead, it’s a question of health. Devin Booker is questionable for tonight’s matchup, and the final announcement about his status will probably swing this spread. It’s worth noting that the team’s general manager, James Jones, said that Booker “should be fine” and that he expects him to play; I wouldn’t worry too much about his status. With that being said, make sure to follow the Suns beat closely before tip-off.
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Suns vs. Trail Blazers Spread Trends and Prediction: Suns -4.5
The Suns are the NBA’s second-best team against the spread. Sitting a t 24-11 ATS, that record trails only the Utah Jazz, and these two teams are the only squads with cover percentages above 60%. The Trail Blazers haven’t been bad against the spread, as their 19-16 ATS record ranks 10th, but they haven’t been nearly as good as the Suns.
However, Phoenix has gone just 7-5 ATS when listed as road favorites. Portland hasn’t been perfect as home underdogs, as their 2-2 ATS record indicates, but the situation isn’t a great one for the opposition. That said, Phoenix is 12-7 ATS when playing with equal rest, while Portland is just 7-9 ATS in such situations.
My NBA betting model is favoring the Trail Blazers here. Using pace and efficiency data, which is then weighted for rest and recent performance, the model predicts that the Suns will win by a 2.4-point margin. That points to a slight edge on Portland.
It’s very chaotic, but Phoenix’s phenomenal track record against the spread means that I’m willing to ignore my model tonight. I expect the Suns to maintain their winning streak tonight — and to do so by at least five points.
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Total Trends and Prediction: Under 227
The trends were clear in terms of the spread, but they’re much less clear for the total. Phoenix’s over percentage (48.6%) sits below the league average while Portland’s (54.3%) sits just above it. The Suns’ number falls to 41.7% when they play as road favorites, too. The Trail Blazers have only played four games as home underdogs, but their over percentage in those games (50%) is a tick below what they’ve done normally.
With the trends not giving us an edge, let’s move back to the model. It predicts these teams to combine for 220.9 points- a healthy margin under the totals posted across the market. The fact that these two teams rank bottom-eight in pace may explain why it favors the under. I don’t love the pick, but I’ll side with the model here and play the under.
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Suns vs. Trail Blazers NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
I favor the Suns tonight, and you can get them as 4.5-point favorites at every sportsbook. You’ll find the best juice at BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet or William Hill (-110). Should you disagree, you can buy the Trail Blazers with the best juice at SugarHouse or DraftKings Sportsbook (-109). Make sure to double-check OddsShopper to confirm that you’re still getting the best deal before placing your bet!
Suns vs. Trail Blazers NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
My model points to value on the under, and you can find the highest-set total at SugarHouse and DraftKings Sportsbook. Oddly enough, those books also have pretty solid juice (-109) despite the higher total. You can also burn a full point and get this line at even odds through PointsBet. Should you disagree with my lean, PointsBet has the lowest-set total, although you’d be better off adding a half-point for better juice at BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook or William Hill. As always, you can follow all line movement directly through OddsShopper.
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