After losing on Wednesday, the Golden State Warriors will have to play their second game in as many nights. This time, they’ll draw the Phoenix Suns, and they’ll have to do it without Stephen Curry and Draymond Green- and maybe even Kelly Oubre as well. If you’re looking for an edge on the NBA betting market, here are the key trends and my predictions.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Warriors vs. Suns
Warriors vs. Suns Game Info
Golden State Warriors (19-17) at Phoenix Suns (23-11)
Date:Â Thursday, Mar. 4, 2021
Start Time: 10 p.m. EST
Venue: Phoenix Suns Arena — PhoenixÂ
As you may expect, the sportsbooks love the Suns tonight. Unlike the Warriors, they are close to full strength — only rotational forward Cameron Johnson will miss tonight’s action. We’re likely to see a heavy dose of Phoenix’s backups here, so I would avoid most Suns on the player props market. That said, the spread and total still offer some value.
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The Suns are the NBA’s second-best team against the spread. Their 23-11 ATS record trails only the Utah Jazz. In contrast, the Warriors have been a middling squad against the spread. They have an 18-18 ATS record, which isn’t bad, but which also isn’t impressive.
A few other trends point to value on the Suns. They are 10-4 ATS when favored at home, while the Warriors are just 4-7 ATS when playing as road underdogs. They are also 2-3 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage.
However, the Suns do have to cover a wide 11-point spread. My NBA betting model, which uses pace and efficiency data weighted for rest and recent performances, predicts Phoenix will win by only a 6.4-point margin. That said, the model doesn’t adjust for player absences, so I feel comfortable ignoring it because both Curry and Green are out.
The trends point to value on the Suns, and I suspect that they’ll find a way to cover even as double-digit favorites.
Warriors vs. Suns Total Trends and Prediction: TKTKTK
Unfortunately, the trends are much less conclusive when it comes to the total. Phoenix has an over percentage of exactly 50%, but the Warriors’ over percentage ranks fourth-lowest at 41.7%. That number ticks up to 45.5% when they play as road underdogs, falling to just 33.3% when they play without rest — but it also jumps to 60.0% when they’re at a rest disadvantage.
I’ll blame small sample sizes for the inconclusive data on Golden State. This is a team that has played just six back-to-back sets and have only had a rest disadvantage five times.
The might be inconclusive, but my NBA betting model points to some value on the under. It predicts that these teams will combine for 219.2 points, a squeeze under the posted totals. However, the model doesn’t adjust for player absences, so can we trust it?
Since the Warriors won’t have their best offensive player tonight, I’ll take the model at face value. It would have favored the under even if Curry were in the lineup, so I seriously doubt that Golden State will put up enough points for the over to cash without him.
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Warriors vs. Suns NBA Betting Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
I’m siding with the Suns against the spread for the reasons outlined above. If you agree with my lean, you can head to FanDuel Sportsbook to buy the Suns as just 11-point favorites. If you’re comfortable with adding a half-point, you can also head over to PointsBet for the best juice (-105). Should you disagree with my assessment, SugarHouse, BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook and William Hill all have the Warriors as 11.5-point dogs at the best juice (-110). However, that may change as tip-off approaches, so make sure to double-check OddsShopper to ensure that you get the best deal.
Warriors vs. Suns NBA Betting Total Picks + Odds Shopping
My model points to value on the under, so I’ll side with it because the trends are inconclusive. Should you agree with that take, you can head over to SugarHouse, PointsBet, DraftKings Sportsbook or William Hill for the highest-set total, or you can burn a half-point for better juice at BetMGM (-105). If you disagree with me and favor the over, FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM have the lowest-set total, but FanDuel has better juice (-112). You can also add a half-point for a better deal at SugarHouse, PointsBet, DraftKings Sportsbook or Willaim Hill (-110). Make sure to keep an eye on OddsShopper to make sure you buy the best line!
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