With Dennis Schroder back in the lineup, the Lakers bounced back from their four-game losing skid and beat the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday. They scored 102 points in the victory while limiting Portland to just 93 points, the first time they had held an opponent to double digits in a victory since Feb. 4. The Lakers have a tougher task against the Warriors tonight, and if you’re looking for an NBA betting edge, here’s a breakdown of the evening’s action.
Tonight’s NBA Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction | Warriors vs. Lakers
Warriors vs. Lakers Game Info
Golden State Warriors (19-15) at Los Angeles Lakers (23-11)
Date: Sunday, Feb. 28, 2021
Start Time: 8 p.m. EST
Venue: STAPLES Center — Los Angeles, Calif.
Coverage: ESPN
The Lakers won’t get Anthony Davis back for a little longer, but their performance in Schroder’s return has to give their fans some hope. They remain third in the Western Conference, four games ahead of the Warriors, who rank seventh. Golden State has gotten hot over the last few weeks, as they have gone 7-3 over their last 10.
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Warriors vs. Lakers Spread Trends and Prediction
The trends point to a bit of value on the Warriors. They performed well against the spread, as they sport an 18-16 record. In contrast, the Lakers have struggled against the spread, as their 15-19 record indicates.
Interestingly, the Lakers have played worse against the spread at home than on the road. They have a 6-11 record against the spread in the STAPLES Center, which isn’t great, but that shouldn’t be a huge concern against the Warriors. Golden State also struggles on the road, as they sport a 7-9 record against the spread when playing as the away team. That drops to 4-6 against the spread when they play as road underdogs.
Like the trends, my NBA betting model points to some value on the Warriors. It uses pace and efficiency data to project a final score and calculate a spread, and because it heavily weighs teams’ recent performances, it favors the Warriors by a point. Golden State ranks fourth in defensive efficiency over the last three games, while the Lakers rank 10th in that category through that span. Los Angeles also rank second worst in offensive efficiency over their last three.
The betting markets narrowly favor the Lakers. Instead of playing the favorite, I recommend that you take Golden State plus the points. They even took down the Lakers by a 2-point margin earlier in the year.
Warriors vs. Lakers Total Trends and Prediction
The trends point to considerable value on the under tonight. Los Angeles boasts the worst over percentage in the NBA (35.3%), and Golden State ranks sixth worst (44.1%).
Interestingly, the Lakers’ over percentage jumps to 52.9% when they play in the STAPLES Center. That is somewhat offset by the Warriors’ track record on the road, as their over percentage dips down (43.8%) when they play outside of San Francisco.
My projections disagree heavily with the trends. These teams combined for 228 points the last time they met, which is a nose above the total (220.5). Furthermore, my model expects a similar score tonight (226.9).
Ultimately, I have to side with the over. These teams have upped their pace of late, and they could sail over this total despite their offensive inefficiencies.
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Warriors vs. Lakers NBA Spread Picks + Odds Shopping
With the Lakers slightly favored over the Warriors, the trends and projections point to some value on Golden State. Should you want to take them, you can get them as 3.5-point underdogs at BetMGM — or you can burn the half-point and get better juice at SugarHouse or DraftKings Sportsbook. Should you favor the Lakers, you can head to FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet or William Hill for the best juice. You can also add a half-point and head to BetMGM for better juice. Also, these lines may move as tip-off approaches, and you can follow all line movement directly through OddsShopper.
Warriors vs. Lakers NBA Total Picks + Odds Shopping
There’s a full point of variance in the totals across the market. If you agree with my projection and want to take the over, head to FanDuel Sportsbook for the lowest total. Should you expect a low-scoring matchup instead, you can head to BetMGM for the highest total. Make sure to keep an eye on OddsShopper to make sure that these totals don’t move before placing your bet!
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