NBA Picks: Prop Report presented by No House Advantage

Welcome to the Prop Report presented by No House Advantage! For those new to the site, NHA is a fantasy sports app that offers prop-based contests across multiple sports. Simply pick your five favorite player props for a given slate, rank them five (most confident) through one (least confident) and receive those points for each prop that hits. The best part? Instead of facing a house advantage on props like you would with a sportsbook, No House Advantage has purely peer-to-peer contests with big cash prizes. Sign up here or download the app from the App Store to get started. I’m going to give you the three NBA picks I have my eye on for you to utilize in your three-, four- and five-point confidence slots on Thursday’s Lakers/Rockets game.

Eric Gordon — OVER 17.5 Points

The Rockets are down 2-1 for the series entering Game 4, and will be forced to play without Danuel House and now possibly Robert Covington tonight. While their absences would certainly hurt Houston’s prospects of winning, it would only yield more production to the rest of the squad. After putting up 23 and 24 points in Games 1 and 2, respectively, Gordon only attempted nine shot attempts total in Game 3’s loss. With more of the Lakers’ focus geared towards slowing down James Harden and Russell Westbrook, more opportunities should make their way to Gordon in this one. Roll with the over for both he and P.J. Tucker‘s point props tonight, especially if Covington doesn’t suit up.

Rajon Rondo — UNDER 8.5 Assists

Playoff Rondo has been in full effect the first three games of this series. He’s got a monster 37.8% assist rate and sports the third-highest usage rate on the team at 21.4%. So why am I shading on the under for this prop? I’m just not sold on the sustainability of the secondary Lakers like Markieff Morris continuing to knocking down shots to boost that assist rate. In fact, the Lakers as a whole are shooting an above-average 51% for the series so far. And if this game stays closer than previous iterations of this series, expect more of LeBron James and Anthony Davis handling the ball and creating in the fourth quarter than Rondo. He’s covered this prop by 0.5 the previous two games, but I could see this assist rate tailing off just enough to make the under on 8.5 a solid play.

Lebron James — OVER on All Props

There is no slowing down LeBron James, only the hope to contain him. Problem is, if Robert Covington is off the floor, who on this Rockets team has a prayer of slowing down LeBron James? Even if Covington does play, trying to guard LeBron is hard enough without a migraine. If making more than one lineup on NHA, I’ll want to spread around exposure to all of his five listed props, with the over on 9.5 rebounds being my favorite. So to review: it’s LeBron James with potentially Gordon and Jeff Green guarding him for 40 minutes. I’l take all the overs I can get.

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Author

Eric Lindquist

Eric Lindquist hails from Sioux Falls, South Dakota (yes, that’s the one with Mount Rushmore). A steady diet of three SportsCenters a day at an early age led to his obsession with sports, one that 30 years later is paying dividends for him as a successful DFS player and sports bettor. Despite over half a million dollars in net career earnings, he’s most passionate about helping others achieve their financial goals, an energy you can witness on the daily in his current role as a host and analyst at Stokastic. He’s a former Division I golfer at Iowa State, wishes he was a former Minnesota sports fan, and is a proud father to a 100-pound Bernese Mountain dog named Duke that wishes he could just eat people food instead of the crap he and his wife feed him on the daily.