Looking for an edge is always the goal for anyone looking to make a profitable wager, and there is one trend that keeps paying its backers (and makes total sense). In the NBA Playoffs, if a team is down 0-2 and going back HOME for game 3, BET THEM IN THE FIRST HALF!
It is completely logical that a team down 0-2 at home will come out strong. In desperation mode and playing in front of an electric home crowd, it is practical to imagine that the home team, down 0-2, would come out strong to start the game. This trend has been very kind if you have been on board:
Overall record of 129-85-7 ATS (+60.3% and ROI of 12.2%).
Unfortunately, the trend has slowed down a bit as of late.. So far, in the 2019 playoffs, this trend is 3-2 (Houston’s first half cover against GS put it over the .500 mark) and last year it cost you the juice at an even 5-5.
But, if you have been keen enough to follow this trend since 2015, it has been a very profitable trend that is worth firing on when available. In 2017, this angle went 9-3 ATS, and in 2016 and 2015 this angle DID NOT LOSE! Since 2007 the trend is 71-39-7 ATS (+64.5%).
Here is a look at the numbers year by year since the 2015 NBA Playoffs:
DOWN 0-2 AT HOME FOR GAME 3 (SINCE 2015)
NBA PLAYOFF YEAR | GAME 3 HOME TEAM FIRST HALF ATS |
2019 | 3-2* |
2018 | 5-5 |
2017 | 9-3 |
2016 | 10-0 |
2015 | 9-0 |
*the ATS record prior to the Game 3’s between Golden State vs. Portland and Milwaukee vs. Toronto.
While Las Vegas has reacted to this trend, it remains a good angle to look at when wagering on the NBA playoffs. Going into this weekend’s conference finals games, both Portland and Toronto will find themselves at home and down 0-2 in the series. Betting both of these teams in the first half is a play that is absolutely worth exploring.
GOLDEN STATE vs PORTLAND: GAME 3: Portland -2.5
Tonight, Golden State and Portland will face off in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. While Portland finds themselves in an 0-2 hole in the series, they have played a strong two games on the road (and especially in game 2). With Kevin Durant remaining on the sidelines, and the series shifting to Portland, it is easy to imagine that Portland will start strong in Game 3 at the Moda Center. The line is set at -2.5 (which also is the spread for the full game). While Portland can certainly win game 3 at home, it is more conceivable that the Trailblazers would come out strong, and be a solid bet to be ahead by 3 or more at the half.
MILWAUKEE vs TORONTO: GAME 3: Toronto -2.5/3
On Sunday, Toronto also finds themselves in desperation mode in a must win game 3 at home. Toronto is coming off a horrendous loss in game 2 and Nick Nurse, Toronto’s coach, knows the importance of protecting home court. “They’ve done what they were supposed to do and protected their home court, and now we have to do the same,” Nurse said after the game 2 loss. The line for the first half is set at -2.5 or -3 depending on your book. You would anticipate after a big letdown, and early struggles in game 2, Toronto will come out strong and set the tone early in Game 3 at home.
Good luck!