The Nuggets and Lakers tip off the Western Conference Finals on Friday. The path is really starting to open for the Lakers in this bracket, but they won’t want to overlook the Nuggets, who became the first team in NBA history to complete two series comebacks after trailing 3-1. Let’s break down both teams’ performances in the postseason, along with a look at their head-to-head matchups this season to give us an idea which side of the NBA picks we want to favor.
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Series Price: Denver (+450), Los Angeles (-625)
Game 1 Price: Los Angeles -7, Denver Moneyline (+245)
Game 1 Total: 210
How have the Nuggets performed in the postseason?
— The Nuggets are 8-6 straight u, but 10-4 against the spread in the playoffs.
— 5-2 ATS in a first-round win over Utah, including covers in the last four games.
— 5-2 ATS in a second-round win over the Clippers, including three wins outright as underdogs of 7.5 or more points.
— First team in NBA history to win two series in one postseason after trailing 3-1.
— Nuggets were the top over team in the bubble entering the postseason, and the over was 5-1 in first six postseason games.
— Now 0-7-1 to the over in last eight games.
How have the Lakers performed in the postseason?
— The Lakers are 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ATS in the playoffs.
— 3-2 ATS in a first-round win over Portland.
— 4-1 ATS in second-round win over Houston.
— The under is 7-3 in the postseason.
Regular Season Matchups
Dec. 3: Los Angeles (+2.5) at Denver (208)
Final Score: Lakers 105, Nuggets 96
Both teams were essentially at full strength for this one, and the Nuggets even had Will Barton on the floor. The Lakers were spectacular as underdogs this season, but we obviously won’t see them in that role in this series unless there’s a major injury. Los Angeles gets the easy cover with the total going under. LeBron James and Anthony Davis scored 25 apiece, while the Lakers limited Nikola Jokic to 13-8-5.
Dec. 22: Denver (+2.5) at Los Angeles (208.5)
Final Score: Nuggets 128, Lakers 104
It is tough to put much weight on this game, as LeBron sat out for the Lakers. The Nuggets easily took care of business, and the scoring outburst helped hit the over. The only minor note is that the Nuggets needed 16 points off the bench from Malik Beasley, who was moved at the deadline. But Michael Porter likely fills a similar role now.
Feb. 12: Los Angeles (-3) at Denver (220.5)
Final Score: Lakers 120, Nuggets 116
LeBron was back in action for this one, and the Lakers got the win and the cover in overtime, which led to an easy over. LeBron’s impact was pretty obvious, going for a 32-point triple-double. Jamal Murray was able to get going for Denver, finishing with 32 points and 10 assists — his best game of the season in this matchup.
Aug. 10 (In Bubble): Denver (+5) vs. Los Angeles (223.5)
Final Score: Lakers 124, Nuggets 121
This is another difficult one to put much stock into. Denver covered and the total went over, while the Lakers got kind of a fluky win. It took a Kyle Kuzma buzzer-beater to steal this game, and the Nuggets rested their starters for the fourth quarter. Maybe that momentum of being able to play with the Lakers carries into this series.
NBA Picks Analysis
So the Lakers finished 3-1 in this matchup, winning all three games LeBron played in. That makes the teams an even 2-2 against the spread in matchups this season but 2-1 with LeBron — although one of the wins against the spread was also tough to trust with the backups on the floor. The last three matchups between those teams went over, with the initial meeting the lone under.
Both teams have started slow in their respective series, so I expect a slow start to Game 1. Without overlooking how spectacular Denver has been in the postseason, the Lakers are a different animal. They won’t crumble like the Clippers did in the last round.
Rajon Rondo’s status will be huge for the Lakers, as he helped take the team to the next level against Houston. The biggest difference here is that the Lakers should have the defenders to limit Jokic, which completely changes the dynamic for Denver. It won’t be easy, but there are too many advantages on the Lakers’ side. The price is obviously too steep to bet the series line, though.
NBA Pick: Lakers in 6
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