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NHL Betting Picks: Rangers (+150) vs. Bruins | Feb. 12
The Rangers come in off a 3-2 overtime loss last night to the Bruins. The loss marked the fifth in a row to the Bruins going back to last season, where Boston swept them four wins to zero on the season. The Rangers may only sport a 4-5-3 record this year, but they’ve been better recently. New York comes into this game with just one regulation time loss over their last six starts and have climbed back to neutral in terms of goal differential. This is all despite many of their top players having sub-par starts to the year, none more prominent than Mika Zibanejad, who comes in with just 3 points in 12 games — after scoring 75 points in 57 games last year. The Rangers entire offense has been half asleep in 2021, as they’ve scored just 2.6 goals per game (seventh worst in the league) after averaging 3.3 last season.
The Bruins have got a big jolt form the return of David Pastrnak to the lineup. He already has 5 goals and 8 points in just five games on the season, and the Bruins are now 4-0-1 with him in the lineup. Boston is now second in the league in expected goal rate (xGF%) and continues to play good defensive hockey — they’ve allowed the seventh-fewest scoring chances. Their power play hasn’t missed Torey Krug much this year either, as they’re operating at a 31.6% efficiency rate. They have two strong goaltenders in Jaroslav Halak (.923 save percentage) and Tuukka Rask (6-1-1 on the season), so there’s no real advantage here for their opponent based on who starts.
New York Rangers Moneyline (+150) vs. Boston Bruins (William Hill)
There’s little doubt that Boston deserves to be the favorite here, but the line (currently set around +150 in the Awesemo OddsShopper tool) is a little too slanted in their favor for me. New York is playing better hockey of late, grinding out wins and overtime points despite not receiving anywhere near the kind of offensive support they had last year. Goalie Igor Shesterkin has regained some form and comes in having stopped 89 of his last 94 shots faced. The tide is going to turn for the Rangers offense at some point, and with them playing a little tighter defensive hockey of late, we need to start taking advantage of these inflated money lines.
The Bruins are by no means an easy opponent, but they’re not without a few flaws either. Their scoring can dry up if their top line gets shut down (admittedly a tough task), and they have some injury issues on the back end. The Rangers reunited their top line from last season recently, and eventually the positive regression will come for Zibanejad, who can carry the team for stretches when he gets hot. New York can turn their season around here with a win, and I think the odds here are worth chancing that tonight.
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Bonus: Arizona Coyotes Moneyline (+120) vs. St. Louis Blues (MGM Bets)
The Coyotes and Blues are in the midst of a seven-game series, and the action moves back to Arizona tonight for these two teams’ fifth meeting in the row. While the Blues are still getting respect here as the road favorite, Arizona has now won three straight games against the Blues. Arizona ranks eighth in expected goals (xGF%), fourth in penalty kill and 13th in power play. St. Louis lags behind the Coyotes in most every advanced stat right now, so other than the fact people don’t think Arizona can win four times in a row, there’s no reason the Blues should be this heavily favored here. I like staying on the Coyotes for one more game at these odds.
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