Going shopping is always a rewarding stress-reliever, and very much the same can be said for the efficient shopping you can accomplish via Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool. In lieu of Thursday Night Football’s matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars hosting the Miami Dolphins, we’ll fire up OddsShopper to scope out and select some of the best bets per odds availability, feasibility and value.
With the Dolphins hungry for their first win following an 0-2 start to the season, coach Brian Flores will be looking to channel the inner-renaissance of Fitzmagic to get Miami a tally in the Wins column. The Jaguars, on the other hand, were four points from starting the season 2-0, after losing to the Tennessee Titans and the leg of Stephen Gostkowski 33-30 last Sunday.
* NFL Odds as of writing. Click HERE for up to date odds using the OddsShopper tool.
Ben’s Bet of the Day
Awesemo’s sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day’s betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.
NFL Odds Shopping + Best Bets: Thursday Night Football, Jaguars vs. Dolphins
When heading over to OddsShopper to peruse the point spread and game totals, it’s also very much worth hopping over into the Player Props to see if there are any obtainable discrepancies to capitalize upon based on existing data.
Gardner Minshew: OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-152, SugarHouse, BetRivers)
In his 2019 rookie season, Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew threw for 21 touchdowns in his 14 games played (or 1.5 touchdowns per game), in what was an unexpected starting role from the middle of Week 1 Sunday of last year going forward. Yet in 2020 through two games played, Minshew’s already thrown for more than 28% of the total touchdowns he threw all of last year, with three passing touchdowns completed in each outing so far.
Minshew’s matchups in achieving his three passing touchdown average haven’t been anything to scoff at either, having done so against both Indianapolis and Tennessee, who both rank among the top eight pass-coverage defenses per Pro Football Focus. In a home matchup with one of the worst pass defenses in the league in the Miami Dolphins coming off a short week, the added juice on the line at -152 becomes a bit less noticeable. Miami’s pass defense, despite a small sample size of two games, ranks among the bottom three teams in the NFL, having allowed four touchdowns and no interceptions.
Also worth noting is the slight advantage Jacksonville’s receiving corps has over the Colts secondary, although wide receiver DJÂ Chark is still questionable with a chest injury. However, the Jaguars offensive line should also win the war in pass protection a majority of the time. With all things considered, I will lay the added juice for the mania known as Minshew.
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Jacksonville Jaguars: Moneyline To Win (-154, BetMGM)
At first glance, the hair-trigger reaction to the point spread offered at Jaguars -3 (-105 FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet) is to place a couple of units down with no questions asked (none besides unit shaming). But having seen this Jacksonville defense play both in a win and a loss relatively close in score to both previous opponents, there’s a trust issue involved with that three point spread and a Swiss cheese secondary to defend it.
Speaking of which, Jacksonville’s secondary is far removed from their days of Jalen Ramsey dominating the far reaches of downfield. In this season’s two-game sample size, the Jaguars are averaging the third-most passing yards per game in the league, surrendering 294 yards through the air along with five touchdowns (and two interceptions).
Facing a squad of Dolphins receivers who possess a clear advantage in DeVante Parker (who should see a lot of Tre Herndon, where he has a four-inch height advantage to boot), the big boom plays are what scare me off the point spread here. Essentially you’ll be getting the three points at a slight discount by taking the Jaguars on the moneyline, as opposed to buying the points off the spread, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this come down to the wire with a shaky defense against Fitzpatrick.
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