NFL Betting Picks: AFC Championship Sunday Football Best Bets | Bills vs. Chiefs

In the second act for Conference Championship Sunday in the National Football League, the American Football Conference concludes the festivities with Josh Allen‘s Buffalo Bills visiting Chiefs Kingdom to battle Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City for the Lamar Hunt Trophy and a trip to the Super Bowl. We’ll look at the NFL betting odds available on OddsShopper to try to identify the best values while cross-referencing player stats, defensive matchups, and team trends to narrow our NFL betting picks.

Ben Rasa's Bet of the Day Awesemo's sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day's betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.

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NFL Betting Picks: AFC Championship Sunday Football

NFL Pick: WR John Brown, OVER 4.5 Receptions

(+115, SugarHouse & DraftKings Sportsbook)

NFL Betting Picks: AFC Championship Sunday Football Best Bets | Bills vs. Chiefs

On a Bills offense that’s thrived often on the Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs show, wide receiver John Brown has contributed (when healthy) as Buffalo’s third-most targeted member on offense and proven more reliable than he hasn’t. When heading to the Receptions subcategory on OddsShopper, we discover Brown with a betting line of 4.5 catches while rewarding the over at +115 odds. Although the total may seem like a catch too many required to cash out meager plus-money odds, in contrast to his teammates Brown possibly has the most attractive player prop line-to-odds comparison when considering the feasibility of the wager.

With supporting cast member Gabriel Davis questionable with an ankle injury heading into this matchup, this could also open up a handful of additional opportunities for Brown or Isaiah McKenzie, though nothing to hang your hat on (also considering the recent addition of Kenny Stills). Despite Brown’s outlier dud performance in the AFC Wild Card round while going 0-4 against the Colts, Brown bounced back in the following week against the Ravens to the tune of eight receptions on 11 targets, tying Diggs in both categories for team-high (while also tying Mark Andrews for game-high in targets). Brown has proven mostly reliable managing a 5.7% drop rate in his nine games during the regular season, albeit a smaller sample size to weigh.

Running 75.9% of his receiving routes from the outside, and with 63.6% of those coming from the left side of the Buffalo offense, Brown will likely (and unfortunately) be seeing much of seventh-year cornerback Bashaud Breeland. While Breeland matches Brown in height at 5’11”, Breeland is roughly 18-20 pounds heavier, while Brown maintains a slight speed advantage which could prove beneficial on deeper routes. Breeland’s 55.6% allowed catch rate to opposing receivers alongside his team-high seven passes broken-up mount a daunting task ahead for Brown.

I believe if the volume on display last week (and in five of nine regular season games where he saw excess of five targets) is again provided to Brown, the +115 betting odds rewarded appear to be reasonably achievable and make for some considerable value in this NFL Conference Championship Sunday.

 

NFL Pick: TE Travis Kelce, OVER 7.5 Receptions

(-125, BetMGM)

NFL Betting Picks: AFC Championship Sunday Football Best Bets | Bills vs. Chiefs

While it’s not a surprise to find Chiefs future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce in tow with such a lofty receptions player prop, especially considering he finished the regular season as second-overall in receptions at the tight end position with 105 catches in 15 games (only behind Darren Waller‘s 107 in 16 games). With an asking price of eight-or-more catches in the AFC Championship Game, Kelce’s receptions player prop opened at even-money odds and has since seen line movement with BetMGM hosting an added 5% on the over. However, this has moved quickly in the other direction, now at a -125. Given what we know of his on-field dominance, coupled with specific weaknesses of the Buffalo defense, we’ll explore Kelce’s receptions prop further as we narrow our NFL betting picks.

For a player to be able to put up comparable receiving numbers to those of speedster wide receiver Tyreek Hill, let alone on the same team, is outlandishly remarkable. Yet Kelce has done just that since Mahomes became the starting quarterback in Kansas City, setting tight end reception records from 2018 to present. Garnering a team-high 24.6% target share average this season, Kelce saw 9.7 targets per game with as many as 14 passes to Kelce in one game. Kelce’s target volume has been a growing staple of consistency for the Chiefs, as he’s seen upward of eight targets in 66% of his games played this season (10 of 15 games).

What’s equally as impressive is Kelce’s absurdly low 1.9% drop rate, most notably considering the team-leading volume share he’s dealing with. Reeling in 105 of 107 catchable passes thrown to him this season, Kelce is the pinnacle of dependable productivity on a major scale. Kelce most recently secured eight receptions on 11 targets in Kansas City’s 22-17 win over Cleveland in the Divisional playoff round, while the Browns happen to rank second-to-last in receptions allowed to opposing tight ends. Can you guess who’s last? Surrendering 110 receptions on a 67.5% catch rate allowed (16th in NFL), Buffalo’s defense ranks 32nd against the tight end position in total catches this season.

Likely drawing Matt Milano in pass coverage, the versatile linebacker proposes a difficult challenge to best on every down, while allowing a stiff 64.7% catch rate to receiving assignments. Yet Kelce is not just an anomaly at the position but a five-inch taller one than Milano at that, while also carrying a 40-pound weight advantage into the head-to-head matchup as well. Considering how the Bills have fared against the tight end position thus far all season, and of all the players to defend against, Kelce would likely rank among the bottom of that list for Buffalo. And given the slight premium at -125 betting odds, I’m glad to be on Kelce’s side of that among our Conference Championship NFL betting picks.

 


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Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.

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