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NFL Betting Picks: Saturday Divisional Playoff Football
NFL Prop Bet: Davante Adams OVER 6.5 Receptions -125 (DraftKings)
The NFL playoffs move on. The Divisional round is set to kick off with a pair of games on both Saturday and Sunday that are sure to produce a ton of drama. On Saturday we get things started in Green Bay with the Packers taking on the Rams, followed by Baltimore looking to continue their run heading into Buffalo. All these teams have the talent to get the job done, and in the betting markets we have a lot of situations to monitor heading into the weekend.
Davante Adams is the subject of player wagers this week. He has a number of props, one of which is his receptions prop of 6.5. Although he is going up against arguably the best secondary in the league, including Jalen Ramsey, I see Adams being able to get over this number and am willing to take a position on it. Adams is having a dominant year and is a huge reason why Aaron Rodgers is set to take home the NFL MVP. Adams comes in with 115 catches for 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns on the season. He is matchup-proof in every sense of the word, and the Packers love to get him involved with some quick easy receptions are gold when betting this type of receptions prop.
The volume is there with Adams, as he is the focal point of the Packer offense. He has seen double-digit targets in four of his last five games, and in Lambeau he is even more reliable. In the seven home games he played this year he saw nine or more targets in six of them, and that is exactly what we want to see here. Ramsey and the Rams secondary have done a great job all year, but as we saw last week, receivers still can have some success especially if there is major volume. D.K. Metcalf drew Ramsey coverage in the Seahawks playoff game last week and caught two touchdowns, so there are ways to still be successful. The way this Packers offense has looked all season, I trust Adams even more and believe they will get him involved early and often.
The price is slightly juiced to the over, with OddsShopper showing -125 as the best price available. Given Adams’ abilities and the Packers’ success in general, I don’t see many game scripts where he is unable to get the opportunities to push over this number. If he sees double-digit targets once again, which he should, I’ll gladly back this over, even against a strong defense like the Rams.
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