NFL Betting Picks: Saturday’s Divisional Round Best Bets | Packers + Davante Adams

Kicking off the Divisional Round, the NFL features a pair football games with staggered start times. With both teams playing for a chance at the Super Bowl, edges are plentiful in the NFL betting markets. Let’s get into some NFL betting picks and odds based on the OddShopper tool and some best bets for the Saturday Slate for the Divisional Round, focusing in on the Green Bay Packers and Davante Adams.

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NFL Betting Picks: Divisional Round | Saturday Slate

NFL Picks: Green Bay -6.5 (PointsBet)

After earning a first-round bye, Green Bay draws a home matchup against the Rams. The Packers enter this contest winner of their last six, while the Rams limped limped their way past the Cardinals and the Seahawks to find themselves here. One of the biggest climate shocks in football, the Rams will travel to Green Bay to play in 30-degree weather. Aside from the geographical advantages, the Packers possess a slew of on-field advantages, making them a sharp bet on the Saturday slate.

Green Bay’s first task in this matchup will be dismantling a strong Rams’ defense. Los Angeles allowed a league-best 5.6 yards per pass attempt in their coverage. They permitted just 174 yards to Russell Wilson last week on a sub-50% completion percentage. However, stopping Aaron Rodgers is a different story. On the year, Rodgers leads the league with 70.7% completion for 9.6 yards per pass attempt. The Packers have also displayed success running the ball. They average 4.8 yards per carry as a group, which ranks top five in the NFL.

On the other side of the ball, the Rams already ruled out John Wolford, leaving Jared Goff to start this game. Undergoing thumb surgery just two weeks ago, Goff looked horrific against Seattle in the Wild Card Round. He completed just nine of 19 passes for 155 yards. Compounding matters, the Rams may play this contest without Cooper Kupp after he failed to practice at all this week. Green Bay’s defense doesn’t quite live up to Los Angeles. However, their secondary still ranks inside the top 12 in yards per attempt allowed. They’ve also shown improvement against the run, and they haven’t allowed an individual back to eclipse 100 yards rushing in five straight weeks.

With environmental and on-field advantages working in their favor, Green Bay looks like a sharp bet ahead of the Divisional Round slate on Saturday.

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NFL Picks: Davante Adams Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)

Easily one of the softest markets at sportsbooks, player props provide a variety of edges on a given slate. When cross-referenced with the Awesemo projected stats, Adams stands out as a particular value in the player prop market on Saturday for the Divisional Round. Listed at 75.5 yards at DraftKings, the Awesemo player projections slate Adams for 95.5 yards receiving. In a must-win contest, expect Adams to receive a sizeable workload.

Perhaps the top receiver in the NFL, Adams finished with a 34.1% target share on the year. Outside of Week 17, Adams hadn’t seen fewer than nine targets in any game he played a majority of the snaps. He also eclipsed 100 yards receiving on seven different occasions this season. In this spot Adams will face off against one of the top corners in the NFL in Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey hasn’t allowed 100 yards in a single game this season, and he has only allowed 50% of passes thrown his way to be completed. However, Adams has yet to be shut down this season, making him a strong bet-on-volume target in this spot.


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Author
Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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