NFL Betting Picks: Sunday’s Divisional Round Best Bets | Saints + Mecole Hardman

Continuing the Divisional Round playoff action, the NFL features a pair football games with staggered start times. With both teams playing for a chance at the Super Bowl, edges are plentiful in the NFL betting markets. Let’s get into some NFL betting picks and odds based on the OddShopper tool and some best bets for the Sunday Slate for the Divisional Round, focusing in on the New Orleans Saints and Mecole Hardman

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NFL Betting Picks: Divisional Round | Sunday Slate

NFL Picks: New Orleans Saints -3 (DraftKings)

Beating the same team three times in a season remains one of the most difficult tasks in football. However, New Orleans will try to do just that with a win over Tampa Bay on Sunday. Meeting for the third time, New Orleans won 34-23 in the first meeting and 38-3 in the second. Since then, the Saints only lost twice against the Eagles and Chiefs. Similarly, the Buccaneers enter this contest with two losses as well coming against the Rams and the Chiefs. Despite the two prior victories, the Saints remain three-point home favorites over a red-hot Tampa Bay team, providing an edge on the Sunday slate of games.

Looking to the offensive side of the ball, the New Orleans Saints possess a number of advantages despite facing a Tampa Buccaneers’ defense that allows just 6.4 yards per pass attempt into their coverage. Despite a strong start to the season, Tampa Bay’s secondary has also shown vulnerabilities of late. Most recently they allowed spot starter Taylor Heinicke to eclipse 300 yards. Prior to that, Matt Ryan racked up at least 265 passing yards in two occasions within Tampa Bay’s last three regular season games. More important yet, the Saints returned Michael Thomas last week. After leading the NFL in catches and receiving yards last year, Thomas’ provides an added weapon for Drew Brees against this defense.

On the other side, Tom Brady walks right into New Orleans’ buzz-saw defense. As a unit, the Saints allow 6.3 yards per pass attempt and 3.8 yards per rush attempt. Both marks rank inside the top 10 in the NFL. Last time these teams faced off, Tampa Bay accounted for eight cumulative rushing yards, while Brady threw three interceptions. The Saints enter this game without any major injuries on defense, pointing to another clear advantage for the home team.

With numerous advantages on both sides of the ball and their home stadium playing a role, New Orleans looks like a sharp bet ahead of the Sunday Divisional Round playoff action.

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NFL Picks: Mecole Hardman Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (William Hill)

Easily one of the softest markets at sportsbooks, player props provide a variety of edges on a given slate. When cross-referenced with the Awesemo projected stats, Hardman stands out as a particular value in the player prop market on Sunday for the Divisional Round. Listed at 34.5 yards at DraftKings, the Awesemo player projections slate Hardman for 40.4 yards receiving. In a must-win contest, expect Hardman to receive an elevated workload.

Hardman remains particularly interesting with Sammy Watkins ruled out well ahead of Sunday’s kickoff. Watkins missed a slew of games during the middle of the regular season, providing a sample of Hardman’s potential role. During that period of time, Hardman actually ran fewer routes than Damarcus Robinson. However, Hardman still ran a route on 68% of drop backs in two of those five games. More important yet, Hardman finished with a higher target share than Robinson over the course of the season. Hardman’s 10.2% share narrowly edged Robinson’s 9.7%.

With Kansas City pacing the NFL in passing yards per game, Hardman provides a solid attachment to Patrick Mahomes and this explosive offense in the prop betting markets.


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Author
Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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