In the second of two NFL Divisional Saturday playoff games, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens head into Buffalo after notching the first playoff victory of Jackson’s career a week ago on the road against the Titans. While Jackson’s accomplishment has made him the focus of talking heads this past week, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is somehow flying a bit further under the radar after also having earned his own hard-fought first playoff victory last Saturday. As we eagerly anticipate which quarterback will earn their second playoff win, we’ll chase value as our NFL betting picks narrow.
Clashing for the third time in their careers, Allen is looking to finally get the chip off his shoulder after having gone 0-2 against Jackson to-date thus far. We’ll take a further look into what the betting market has to offer using the OddsShopper tool, as we seek to identify any vantage points in the betting lines. We’ll cross-reference season stats and team trends to aid in finding the best value odds available as we narrow our NFL betting picks for this Divisional round of the 2021 playoffs.
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NFL Betting Picks: Divisional Round Saturday Football | Ravens vs. Bills
NFL Pick: WR Marquise Brown, OVER 4.5 Receptions (+115, BetMGM & William Hill Sportsbook)
Just over a month ago it was beginning to look like the Ravens were going miss the playoffs, coming off a three-game losing streak and stifled by COVID-19 diagnoses. Yet Baltimore flipped the switch, running the table to win their final five games of the season and with the Ravens top receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown finding his stride (and his hands) once again. Looking to the player receiving props subcategory on OddsShopper, Brown is getting a reception total of 4.5 catches, with +115 odds-on the over. Considering the production over his past month during a sort of redemption phase, the plus-money awarded on such a low reception total makes for some of the best NFL betting odds in this matchup.
At first glance, one could presume the +115 odds on just five or more receptions for the Ravens top receiver would be due in part to considerable respect paid to the Buffalo secondary. Ranking third best overall in catch rate to wide receivers, with 61.2% receptions allowed, the Bills pass coverage has proven itself a stiff contender throughout the regular season and into the playoffs. Yet when we look at the matchup presented to Brown himself, he’s likely to see his fair share of cornerbacks Tre’Davious White and Taron Johnson, with Brown splitting his time between the outside and slot routes, Brown could be at an advantage in both matchups. With Johnson allowing a 74.4% catch rate (while White is allowing a more rigid 61.8%), the Ravens may find themselves trying to attack Johnson in the slot, where Brown has run 39.4% of his routes this season.
Averaging 6.8 targets per game in his final six games of the regular season (6.3 season average), Brown hauled-in seven of nine targets just a week ago in the Wild Card Round against the Titans. Despite a shaky reputation, Brown managed to pull down 58 of 65 catchable passes this season, the plus-money odds featured on the Ravens top receiver is too hard to pass up, despite the tough defensive matchup amidst a 34-degree evening. If Baltimore is to pull this game out on the road, it would be hard to imagine doing so without some significant contribution from Hollywood Brown. Getting Brown’s prop at +115 is very much worthy of addition to our NFL betting picks for Saturday.
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NFL Pick: WR Cole Beasley, OVER 3.5 Receptions (-170, William Hill Sportsbook)
Before getting into any details here, I would also advocate for the over on 4.5 receptions prop line for Bills wide receiver Cole Beasley at just above even-money, but thanks to OddsShopper the pick is easily wagered from whichever angle you prefer. Either way, whether it’s paying the premium on the 3.5 catches or risking to win a bit more a la one extra catch, the NFL betting odds reception prop totals for Beasley make for considerable value through their feasible attainability based on what we’ve seen from him so far all season.
The clear-cut number two receiver in Buffalo, Beasley has forged a name for himself as the reliable slot receiver staple for Josh Allen as we’ve come to know of other comparable players of his ilk, such as Julian Edelman serving as Tom Brady‘s safety net in years past. While averaging 7.1 targets this season (second-most on Bills offense), Beasley heated-up in his last six games of the regular season where he averaged 8.8 targets while seeing no fewer than four in any one game (and sitting out Week 17). Just last week in a close win against a hard-nosed Colts defense, Beasley went perfect snagging seven catches on seven targets, with his phenomenal 1.2% season drop rate on full display.
Running 91.1% of his routes from the slot, Beasley will draw a concerningly difficult matchup with Ravens corner Marlon Humphrey, who’s allowing a middling 64.1% catch rate to assigned receivers this season. However, seeing how teammate and first-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Stefon Diggs is garnering -150 odds on a steep 6.5 receptions, it’s easy to believe the Ravens’ attention will be steered toward stopping Diggs. This may indicate that Beasley will be provided enough snaps drawing daylight to production, while coupled with that insanely low drop rate, the chances here appear likely for Beasley to surpass his reception total on a low line set in tandem with favorable NFL betting odds for Divisional Round Saturday.
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