Just because the NFL season is underway, doesn’t mean we can’t continue to search for value in the NFL futures market. Odds are constantly shifting, and we can potentially find some value in NFL picks along the way with overreactions creating good prices. The Awesemo OddsShopper tool helps us identify the best books to place future wagers throughout the season, so make sure you continue to check there for the best place to make your bet before you lock it in.
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NFL Betting Picks: Week 3 NFL Futures Report
Player NFL Futures
NFL Pick: MVP
We said last week, if you were going to bet one of the top-three quarterbacks on the board to do it ASAP. Well, that was correct about two of the three. Patrick Mahomes (+550) slid down the board from +350, having a below average game against the Chargers. But this was more about the dominance of Lamar Jackson (+500) and brilliance of Russell Wilson (+350).
Wilson now has nine passing touchdowns through two games, and is the deserving favorite for the award. I hate to say it again, but if you want to bet Wilson, you might want to pounce before he skyrockets. In coming weeks, he faces Dallas, Miami, Minnesota and Arizona. I’d get in now.
Mahomes and Jackson go head-to-head on MNF this week, and the winner is bound to take the lead for second in this race. Jackson and the Ravens are 3.5-point favorites, so this might be the week to get in on him, and maybe wait for a better number on Mahomes.
Aaron Rodgers (+1400) is starting to show some value. OddsShopper has him still available at last week’s price on some books, while others have him as high as +800. Kyler Murray (+1400) crept up a tiny bit after being +1700 last week, having another terrific game.
NFL Pick: Offensive ROY
Hopefully you reacted to Joe Burrow (+300) being underpriced last week, and +400 was showing. He came back with a big game on TNF, and is now the favorite at all but one book on OddsShopper. Burrow is +175 or lower on every book besides BetMGM, showing tremendous value on the No. 1 pick at +300.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+200) is slightly behind Burrow on most books, obviously outside of BetMGM, which has him at even odds. No real value on him at the moment when Burrow is still out there at +300.
Team NFL Futures
NFL Pick: Super Bowl Winner
Most books still have the Ravens (+500) and Chiefs (+550) as co-favorites to win it all, although the Chiefs nearly slipping up did keep KC at +550 at some books. Both were +550 last week.
It’s still too early to overreact to too much when it comes to betting the Super Bowl, but I am a bit surprised the Saints (+1200) are still the third favorite here. That team could be in real trouble on both sides of the ball. We’ll touch on them in win totals.
Win Total
I love having the ability to bet in-season win totals. Not only being able to see how the team your betting on looks, but how their schedule becomes more or less difficult, along with reacting to injuries.
NFL Pick: New Orleans Saints 10.5
Drew Brees not playing well in September is nothing new, but the Saints looked particularly bad on MNF against the Raiders. The Saints’ win total was 10.5 to begin with, so it feels like going 1-1 in two games they were favored in should push us towards the under here from a numbers standpoint on top of the eye test. Playing the under is still priced at -110 at FanDuel.
NFL Pick: San Francisco 49ers 9.5
The Niners’ 1-1 start does give us a worse number than we could have played preseason, but just look at the injuries this team is dealing with. Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas are both done for the season with ACL tears, Jimmy Garoppolo is banged up, Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert are both going to miss time, George Kittle is expected to play through injury next week, and the top-two wide receivers are still hurt. Oh, and the 49ers play in the toughest division in football, with the Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals all 2-0. And this team is still supposed to win 10 games? Give me the under, which is widely available for plus money.
Division Winner
Betting divisions in-season is one of my favorite ways to get an edge. Getting the right team at a better number after an outlier loss can be a good way to find an edge. Here’s a quick look at each division after each team has played a game.
Last week I wrote up every division in the first edition of this article. Weeks moving forward, I’ll only touch on divisions I think could have an edge before the odds shift.
NFL Pick: AFC South
The Colts (+175) bounced-back with a win over the Vikings in Week 2, but the Titans (+100) survived the Jags as well. Just using the eye test here, Philip Rivers looks completely washed. Assuming the Titans can handle a Vikings squad that’s looked awful in the first two games, this could be the last week we see Tennessee at plus money. The Colts get the Jets this week, though, so they’re in line for a convincing victory. If you want the Titans, it’s probably this week and maybe next week to get them.
NFL Pick: NFC East
The Cowboys (-189) were a miracle onside kick away from being 0-2, and yet are heavily favored to win this division. It speaks to how putrid the competition is. Washington (+1200) and New York (+2200) have no chance, and the Eagles (+260) have been a complete mess. I think Dallas is the play, but we might want to wait a week. The Eagles host the Bengals this week, while the Cowboys are in the road at Seattle. If we get both teams at 1-2, we’ll get the odds on Dallas we need. The Cowboys should break away from the pack as the season continues.
NFL Pick: NFC North
The Vikings (+600) didn’t take long to show that they didn’t deserve to be preseason favorites. I’m not buying into the Bears (+260), who are 2-0 because of an easy schedule, and the Lions (+2000) blowing an insane lead. This could be the Packers’ (-139) division by default this season. Even if Green Bay loses to the Saints this week, the odds could still be around the same. All four teams in this division are underdogs in Week 3.
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