This article will look at the best NFL bets for Saturday’s two AFC Wild Card playoff games. The Raiders and Bengals will get things started in Cincinnati at 4:30 p.m. (ET), while the Bills will host the Patriots at 8:15 p.m. (ET).
Using the Awesemo NFL Betting Props Tool, bettors can utilize it to maximize their profits and see which bets have the highest expected return on investment. Also, bettors can use OddsShopper to find which sportsbooks are offering the best prices for these prop bets. Here are the 10 best NFL bets for Saturday’s Wild Card Weekend.
Best NFL Bets & AFC Wild Card Predictions (Saturday)
Cincinnati Bengals Spread (-5.5) Over Las Vegas Raiders
Both the Bengals and Raiders enter in good form, but Las Vegas has to travel east and play in the cold, which they are not historically good at. Cincinnati defeated Las Vegas 32-13 in Week 11, as the Bengals scored 17 unanswered points late in the fourth quarter. The Bengals dominated the time of possession, as they racked up 159 yards on 38 carries in that game. Do not expect a repeat in this one.
Cincinnati has too many offensive weapons, and their game is rolling. The biggest concern for the Bengals is protecting Joe Burrow. But the Raiders are not great at getting pressure on quarterbacks, and they only have registered 35 sacks on the season. Moreover, Cincinnati has outscored their opponents by 5 points a game, as six of their 10 victories have been by double digits. Meanwhile, the Raiders have been outscored by over 3 points a game, and only one of their seven setbacks has been a close loss.
Bills vs. Patriots Under 44 Points
Highmark Stadium will be extremely cold, with temperatures expected to hover around zero degrees and the wind chill in the negatives. So do not expect the teams to air the ball out a ton, especially the Patriots. Plus, both squads have sterling pass defenses. The last time the teams met in similar conditions, the Patriots threw three times and the teams combined for 24 points. The under has hit in each of the Bills’ last three home games and is 4-1 in the previous five meetings the teams have played in Buffalo.
Joe Burrow Over 260.5 Yards Passing
Burrow has been fantastic this year, particularly at home. While Burrow did not have to do much in the earlier game against the Raiders, expect this game to be different. The Bengals threw the ball on 58.8% of their plays for the year, but they aired it out 160 times out of 265 plays (60.4%) over their last four home games, including 133 over their final two at Paul Brown Field.
Burrow led the NFL in yards per game, completion percentage and yards per attempt. He has thrown for 270 or more yards in nine of his last 12 games, including seven of nine games at home. Burrow averages 331.2 yards through the air while completing an incredible 73.1% of his passes to go along with two touchdowns in games played in Cincinnati.
Meanwhile, the Raiders secondary is average at best. Las Vegas has allowed the 13th-fewest yards a game (222.9), but they did not face the most daunting schedule of quarterbacks. Still, opposing quarterbacks completed 66% of their passes. Teddy Bridgewater, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger and Dak Prescott had big days against the Raiders. Burrow is projected for 281.25 yards. OddsShopper gives the over a 62% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 20%.
Ja’Marr Chase Over 70.6 Yards Receiving
Chase is a one-of-a-kind talent and a huge reason Burrow had such a great regular season. He is not the most reliable pass catcher, being charged with 11 dropped passes on the season, but he finished the season catching 20 of 26 pass attempts (76.9%) for 417 yards and three touchdowns over the final three games. Overall, he recorded an average depth of 12.6 yards per target and 9.9 yards downfield before making a catch. Chase leads the Bengals with 22 big plays, including seven receptions of 40 or more yards.
Las Vegas has done a pretty good job against opposing wide receivers, particularly after the catch, but their opponents average 8.5 yards of depth per pass attempt — which is tied for the fourth-most in the league. Moreover, the Raiders have allowed three plays a game of 20-plus yards and 10 total plays of 40 yards.
Chase is projected for 81.59 yards. He has eight games of at least 77 yards on the season. OddsShopper gives the over a 59% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 13%.
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C.J. Uzomah Over 25.50 Yards Receiving
Uzomah had a career year, and he has been pretty reliable. He averages three catches a game on nearly four targets (77.8%) for 30.5 yards. Uzomah has posted seven games of at least 30 yards, including three of his last four outings. Uzomah has an excellent matchup against the Raiders and is projected for 31.05 yards. Las Vegas has given up ninth-most receptions and seventh-most yards to opposing tight ends. OddsShopper gives the over a 54% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 3%.
Darren Waller Over 4.5 Receptions
Waller is finally healthy, as he does not have an injury designation heading into Wild Card weekend. Waller returned to action last week against the Chargers, where he finished with just two receptions on nine targets for 22 yards. It was his first action since Thanksgiving Day, so expect the rust to be worn off and Waller to be more confident in a terrific matchup against the Bengals, who allow the fourth-most receptions to tight ends. Opposing tight ends average 5.6 receptions a game on 7.7 targets a game. Waller is projected for 5.79 receptions. OddsShopper gives the over a 68% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 10%.
More NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
- Josh Jacobs Over 57.50 Yards Rushing
- Rhamondre Stevenson Under 48.5 Yards Rushing
- Zay Jones Under 4.5 Receptions
- Bills Moneyline (-210) Over Patriots
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