Following a tumultuous NFL season that was played in the shadow of a pandemic during a year of uncertainty, we have arrived at Super Bowl LV weekend, and it’s a relief to see the league achieve it. Along with the Super Bowl comes a fun week of pageantry (albeit on Zoom this year), and, more importantly for our purposes, a catalog of prop bets that could whet the palate of almost any sports bettor. While taking a look at OddsShopper we’ll cross-reference player stats and matchups, along with team trends from this season to help identify any potential weaknesses in the current odds, to sort out the best NFL betting picks and values available.
NFL Betting Pick: TE Travis Kelce, OVER 7.5 Receptions (-130, William Hill Sportsbook)
Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce‘s resume heading into this season was already rife with accolades and accomplishment accumulated over his seven prior NFL seasons, as if he could be accused of having unfinished business. Yet, here stands Kelce at the doorstep of his second Super Bowl in two seasons, following a career-high 105 regular season receptions (second-most reception among tight ends, fifth most overall in 2021) and an additional 21 postseason receptions in just two games. With the receptions player prop for Kelce set at 7.5 catches with -130 on the over, paying the premium in house juice is worth the moderate reception line that Vegas has chosen to set for the dominant tight end.
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With an average of seven receptions per week through the regular season, Kelce’s reception totals remained solid as the year progressed. The superstar tight end hauled in upward of eight catches in nine of his ten most recent games (Week 17 was the one game he didn’t catch more than eight, finishing with seven receptions). With just a 2.1% drop rate all season, Kelce’s reliability is well documented, justifying Patrick Mahomes utilizing him as the most targeted member of the team’s offense all season, with 145 total targets. That comprised 23.7% of the Chiefs target shares and 29% of Kansas City’s offensive production receiving, totaling 1,416 yards (1,643 including postseason). This even makes the increased betting line of 8.5 catches at +110 (via SugarHouse and DraftKings Sportsbook) that much more enticing, while the 1.60 swing on the additional catch may be worth the investment among NFL betting picks when considering a potential weakness by Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers allowed 86 receptions to opposing tight ends through the regular season (tied at 22nd in the NFL with the Carolina Panthers), including a 72.5% catch rate allowed to the position through postseason play (where they have yielded another 19 receptions in three games). In the Week 12 matchup between these teams, Kelce managed eight receptions for 82 yards on eight targets. That production came in a game that also saw his wide receiver teammate Tyreek Hill have a monster day (13/269/3). Taking the over on Kelce’s reception line of 7.5 is a value among NFL betting picks, given a moderately achievable catch total in a Super Bowl matchup where it has already been stated that stopping Hill is Tampa Bay’s top priority.
NFL Betting Pick: WR Scotty Miller, OVER 0.5 Rushing Yards (+525, William Hill Sportsbook)
Alright, I’ll bite. Shifting to the Rushing Yards sub-category on OddsShopper, we discover wide receiver Scotty Miller with a player prop of 0.5 rushing yards at staggering +525 odds. While the likelihood isn’t necessarily the greatest by margin of carries, Miller has been used as a running back in a handful of situations this season, so we’ll look into our chances and the value of sprinkling a small amount on the wager as one of our NFL betting picks.
Known better as a slot receiver than a running back, Miller registered three carries for 14 yards rushing through the regular season. Not at all a convincing measure, but this isn’t about a bet on volume, which is further signified by the yardage total required. This bet is more about whether a situation arises where either Miller’s outright speed is required to pick up a first down, while also throwing a different look at the defense. Miller is one of the fastest members of the entire Buccaneers roster, and Tampa Bay already called a rushing play with Miller in the Wild Card Round against Washington, good for an eight-yard gain on first-down. The fact that this play was run in the playoffs – and, importantly, that it was a success – is a bit of encouragement to what is clearly more of a “for fun” wager on fantastic odds than it is a strategic play.
I would by no means recommend throwing your life savings or any money you cannot afford to lose on this bet, but it’s also good to have reasonable fun with your wagers on a prop-heavy day like the Super Bowl. Getting +525 odds on Miller to get 1 yard rushing seems a reasonable enough chase among NFL betting picks in a Super Bowl where presumably both teams will be pulling out all the stops.
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