With the 2021 NFL Draft quickly approaching, ESPN unveiled its annual Draft Challenge contest. The challenge includes answering a series of NFL Draft-related questions for a shot at $100,000. With any large-field contest, this challenge features a layer of strategy on top of answering each individual question correctly. With elements of GPPs on DraftKings and FanDuel, here is a possible strategy approach to each individual question for the ESPN Draft Challenge and best way to make your picks ahead of the 2021 NFL Draft.
1. Who will be the first overall pick?
Trevor Lawrence or any other player
With plenty of opportunities to embrace variance, this is the not the position to do so. Lawrence enters the 2021 NFL as the top quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. FanDuel currently has him -20000 to be the top pick.
2. Who will be the second overall pick?
Zach Wilson or any other player
This is another question to eat the chalk, as Wilson looks all but set in stone at No. 2. While the odds aren’t quite as eye-popping, FanDuel still has Wilson at -3000 to be the second overall pick to the New York Jets.
3. Who will be the third overall pick?
Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Trey Lance or any other player
The first point of uncertainty in the NFL Draft, each of these signal-callers has been rumored to San Francisco at No. 3 at one point or another. FanDuel has Fields -125, Jones +180, and Lance +210 to come off the board third. With the best analytical profile, Fields looks like the safest pick. Fields has accuracy numbers similar to Jones and athleticism similar to Lance. However, any of the three could be selected here.
4. Which of these players will be picked first?
Ja’Marr Chase, Kyle Pitts, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle
While all four pass catchers have a legitimate case to come off the board first, Chase and Pitts are the two most likely. Each has a position prop of 5.5 on FanDuel, but Pitts has more juice towards the under at -156. Standing 6-foot-6, 245 pounds, Pitts ran a 4.44 40-yard dash. With the production to back it up, Pitts special blend of size and speed makes him the favorite to come off the board first in this group.
5. Who will be the first defensive player picked?
Caleb Farley, Micah Parsons, Patrick Surtain II or any other player
With many mocks having nine of the top 10 picks coming from the offensive side of the ball, predicting the top defender is a challenge. While trades could shake this up, Surtain and Parsons are the most likely to come off the board first. Right now, FanDuel has Surtain’s draft position at 10.5 and Parsons at 12.5. With the corner-hungry Cowboys selecting at 10.5, Surtain is the safest pick. However, this could be a place to get contrarian after seeing seven first-round trades in 2018, six in 2019 and four in 2020. Atlanta needs help at multiple defensive positions and could look for a trade-back partner.
6. Which of these players will be picked first?
Kwity Paye, Ronnie Perkins, Jaelan Phillips, Azeez Ojulari
Phillips currently is the only player from this list with a positional prop of DraftKings (17.5). This is truly one of the most difficult decisions on this list. Ojulari, Paye and Phillips have all received first-round buzz, but all have concerns. Ojulari is undersized for the edge and never played more than 52 snaps in a game. Phillips already medically retired once due to his long injury history. Paye is more athlete than edge rusher at this point in his career but has elite physical traits. Any of these three make sense.
7. Which of these players will be picked first?
Rashod Bateman, Terrace Marshall Jr., Elijah Moore, Kadarius Toney
Each of these wide receivers has received first-round hype at one point or another during the draft cycle. Bateman and Toney currently have positional props at 26.5 and 27.5, respectively on FanDuel, while Marshall and Moore are not listed. However, this class has an abundance of slot receivers, making Marshall an interesting contrarian pick. Marshall stands 6-foot-3, 205 pounds and brings solid size-adjusted speed with his 4.40 40-yard dash. While Bateman, Moore and Toney fit the slot mold, Marshall’s physical traits could cause him to come off the board first in a class without elite size.
8. Over/Under 6.5 offensive linemen picked in Round 1?
Penei Sewell, Rashawn Slater and Christian Darrisaw are locked in first-round picks. Most mock drafts also include Alijah Vera-Tucker and another tackle prospect. However, the back end of the first round includes a slew of teams with needs on the offensive line. Chicago, Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Kansas City all stand out. With Teven Jenkins, Walker Little, Alex Leatherwood, Landon Dickerson and a few others as potential late-round picks, the over looks like a solid pick.
9. How many Alabama players will be picked in Round 1?
5 or Fewer, 6, 7, 8 or More
Waddle, Smith, Christian Barmore, Patrick Surtain and Mac Jones all project within the top 20 picks in most mock drafts. After receiving medical clearance at the NFL Combine, Landon Dickerson has also begun to sneak into many first-round mock drafts. This puts the chalk at six Alabama players in the first round. There is also a chance Alex Leatherwood could sneak into the first, but six Alabama players is the most likely scenario.
10. Who will be the first running back picked?
Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, Javonte Williams, or any other player
This is a spot to consider a potential contrarian pick. Harris is -170 to be the first running back selected on FanDuel. Etienne sits at +150 and Williams is +500. Many mocks do not have a running back in the first round, adding some volatility here. With Etienne and Harris neck-and-neck in most projections, taking the contrarian play in Etienne looks like the move.
11. Which of these schools will have a player picked first on Day 2?
Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Ohio State
This one is a complete shot in the dark. Notre Dame’s Liam Eichenberg is a candidate to come off the board early on Day 2. Leatherwood could also be an early Day 2 pick. Numerous teams also need a running back, putting Etienne in the mix.
12. How many wide receivers will be picked on Day 2?
7 or fewer, 8, 9, 10 or more
2018, 2019, and 2020 saw eight, 11 and nine receivers drafted, respectively, on Day 2. The last two classes were considered particularly strong, mirroring this 2020 class. Picking nine or 10 receivers here seems about right.
13. Which of these players will be picked first?
Jevon Holland, Dylan Moses, Asante Samuel Jr., or Pete Werner
Samuel is the only player in this group who received any sort of first-round hype. He currently has the sixth-highest odds to be the first corner off the board on FanDuel (+3100). However, the corner is a position of value to most NFL programs. Holland, Moses and Werner all play devalued positions as safeties or linebackers. Samuel is the safe pick.
14. Which of these players will be picked first?
Sam Ehlinger, Davis Mills, Kellen Mond, Jamie Newman
Similar to the question above, Mills is the only quarterback on this list to receive any sort of first-round hype. He is a former five-star recruit who missed a majority of his career due to injury. However, he has solid size and traits that NFL teams try to develop in the middle rounds every year.
15. Which of these players will be picked first?
Kylin Hill, Chuba Hubbard, Jaret Patterson, Trey Sermon
Another chalky selection, Sermon is in the RB4 discussion behind Williams, Etienne and Harris at the top. Patterson stands 5-foot-7, 195 pounds with poor athleticism. Hubbard tested fairly well but played horrifically after making the curious decision to return to school. Hill opted out early in the season and presented little film for NFL evaluators. Sermon is an easy selection.
16. Which of these conferences will have a player picked first on Day 3?
ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12
Similar to the question regarding Day 2, this question is complete guesswork.
17. How many Ohio State players will be picked in Round 4?
0, 1, 2, 3 or more
Ohio State has a number of mid-round prospects, including Trey Sermon, Shaun Wade, Wyatt Davis, Josh Myers, Tommy Togiai, Pete Werner, Baron Browning, Tuf Borland, Justin Hilliard, Jonathan Cooper and Luke Farrell. Two prospects in Round 4 seems like a good bet, with Urban Meyer being involved and Jacksonville having a pair of second-round picks. This is still a complete guess.
18. Will Ian Book be picked?
No, Book is an undersized quarterback with a limited arm.
19. How many quarterbacks will be picked in Round 7?
0, 1, 2, 3 or more
2018, 2019, and 2020 saw three, zero and four quarterbacks drafted in the seventh round. This class has a number of interesting developmental names like Kellen Mond, Jamie Newman, Ian Book, Sam Ehlinger and Shane Buechele. With fewer players in the class after the NCAA allowed seniors to return for an extra year of eligibility, two or three of these prospects could come off the board in the seventh round.
20. Which conference will Mr. Irrelevant come from?
ACC, Big Ten, SEC, or any other conference
With no way to predict this outcome, the chalk should be any other conference. From 2018 onward, Mr. Irrelevant came from the AAC, Pac-12 and SEC. Any other conference deserves chalk, but one of the aforementioned three conferences could be a solid contrarian play.
Bonus: What number pick will Kyle Trask be selected?
Trask and Davis Mills alternate between the sixth and seventh quarterback on most boards. After Trask put up 4,283 yards while completing 68.9% of his passes, he has a decent shot at a Day 2 selection. Tampa Bay has the 64th pick in the NFL Draft and will need an eventual replacement to Tom Brady. In this hypothetical, Trask develops behind Brady for the immediate future.
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