2021 NFL Player Props: The Best Passing Touchdown Bets Using Awesemo’s Expert Player Props Tool

With the 2021 NFL regular season just around the corner, the futures market is booming with a near-endless catalog of team and player props. Thankfully, Awesemo and Shawn Zhan have developed a tool specifically designed to tackle the NFL prop bets market: The Awesemo NFL Season Long Player Props Tool. Utilizing the tool, we will explore each major section of the current NFL player futures market to identify the best NFL prop bets and odds available per category.

Past Regular Season Touchdown Leaders By Year

Although the previous odds and where they settled by the time their respective seasons began are difficult to dig up, we can loosely use the past touchdown leaders as a barometer for the plausible comparisons of then and now.

  • 2020: Aaron Rodgers, 48
  • 2019: Lamar Jackson, 36
  • 2018: Patrick Mahomes, 50
  • 2017: Russell Wilson, 34
  • 2016: Aaron Rodgers, 40
  • 2015: Tom Brady, 36
  • 2014: Andrew Luck, 40
  • 2013: Peyton Manning, 55
  • 2012: Drew Brees, 43
  • 2011: Drew Brees, 46

NFL Player Props: Best Touchdown Passing Odds & Bets

Ryan Fitzpatrick

  • Over 22.5 Touchdowns Passing (-110, William Hill)
  • Worthy of Consideration: Most Touchdowns Passing (+6000, William Hill)

Ryan Fitzpatrick heads to his ninth team, embracing the starting role for the Washington Football Team. Joining him are receivers Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown and former Bears tackle Charles Leno.

The Awesemo Season Long Player Props Tool has Fitzpatrick’s touchdown prop line at 23.5 touchdowns with a favorable 70% chance of hitting the over and a 32% return on investment. Yet William Hill Sportsbook has 22.5 touchdowns, one shy of the player prop tool, at -110 odds. Despite the temptation to promote +6000 odds on Fitzpatrick to throw the most touchdowns in 2021, settling for -110 would be the modest approach. Pass-catching backs Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic, plus star Terry McLaurin, give Fitzpatrick arguably his best offensive weapons in years.

The last Fitzpatrick played a full 16-game season as starter was with the Jets in 2015, and he threw for 31 touchdowns, five behind the league leader. He did this with Eric Decker, Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa as his top three pass catchers, so the +6000 bet is not totally ludicrous.

Matt Ryan

  • Most Touchdown Passing (+1800, William Hill)
  • Over 28.5 Touchdown Passing (-110, William Hill)

Matt Ryan is without Julio Jones for the first time in nearly a decade, yet the Awesemo Season Long Player Props Tool gives Ryan a line of 29.5 touchdowns and projects for 32.1. The tool gives Ryan a 60% probability of exceeding the prop line and 13% return on investment. William Hill Sportsbook’s line here is one less and gives -110 odds on the over of 28.5 touchdowns passing. Ryan had touchdown totals of 26 in 2018 and 2019, and his reestablished primary weapons in 2021 feature more versatile talent.

Pass-catching running back Mike Davis provides an added reliable target on both third and passing downs, as he caught 59 of 70 targets for 373 yards and two touchdowns with Teddy Bridgewater as his quarterback. Calvin Ridley is now the Falcons’ lead wide receiver following his first 1,000-yard season. Olamide Zaccheaus showed glimpses of promise during Jones’ time sidelined in 2020 (and also will be forced to step into a larger role this year), and Atlanta drafted tight end Kyle Pitts with the fourth pick. Pitts caught 12 touchdowns in the SEC last year and is one of the top tight end prospects in recent history.

With all things considered, the Awesemo Season Long Player Props Tool is pointing in the right direction on both the over and the touchdown lead for Ryan.

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Check out Stokastic's Best Bets home page for more sports betting picks and predictions.

Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.

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